NEW DELHI: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) now estimates that 12 Indian nuclear warheads are deployed with operational forces, a departure from its previous assessment that counted none and one that suggests India’s nuclear posture is gradually shifting towards a more operational sea-based deterrent.
In its annual Yearbook released Monday, SIPRI assesses that India may have started deploying a small number of nuclear warheads aboard a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) conducting deterrence patrols. India’s total nuclear stockpile is estimated at around 190 warheads as of January 2026, up from 180 a year earlier.
“It has long been assumed that India stores its nuclear warheads separate from its deployed launchers during peacetime,” the report says. However, India’s growing use of canisterised missiles and sea-based deterrence patrols suggests it “could be shifting in the direction of mating some of its warheads with their launchers in peacetime”.
Based on that assessment, SIPRI estimates India “may have started to deploy a small number of nuclear warheads on a single SSBN conducting occasional deterrence patrols”, while cautioning that the finding comes with “considerable uncertainty”.
India is expected to field its fourth nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine next year, according to the report. Satellite imagery cited by SIPRI suggests the new boat and the recently commissioned INS Aridhaman are significantly larger than their predecessors and carry twice as many missile tubes. The institute adds that India’s planned S5-class programme could eventually see the country operating between six and eight SSBNs simultaneously.
India’s nuclear modernisation programme is increasingly geared towards developing longer-range systems capable of reaching targets across China. At the same time, New Delhi’s nuclear planning “still remains heavily influenced by its long-standing rivalry with Pakistan”, the report notes.
SIPRI also highlights India’s progress in multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) technology, saying the Agni-V has demonstrated the capability to carry up to three nuclear warheads on a single missile. India is additionally developing hypersonic cruise missiles that may be dual-capable.
More broadly, the institute identifies MIRVs and the growing overlap between conventional and nuclear capabilities as among the most destabilising trends in contemporary nuclear strategy. China, India and Pakistan all field operational dual-capable missile systems capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads. Such systems, SIPRI warns, increase the risk of miscalculation because an adversary may be unable to determine the nature of an incoming missile.
The report also reflects on last year’s India-Pakistan hostilities, describing them as the most significant military confrontation between the two countries in decades. Indian strikes targeted Pakistani air and missile bases “assessed to have nuclear missions”, according to SIPRI.
While both sides took deliberate steps to keep the conflict below the nuclear threshold, the report warns that the confrontation “marked a shift in the region’s dynamics, making the risk of rapid, unexpected escalation to a nuclear level a lingering and serious concern”.
Pakistan’s stockpile remained the same at an estimated 170 warheads. However, the continued accumulation of fissile material and development of new delivery systems suggest its arsenal is likely to expand over the next decade.
Its Ababeel missile, designed to carry MIRVs, reportedly failed a test in August 2025 and is unlikely to have been operationally deployed. Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear capability, meanwhile, remains in the development and testing phase.
In a separate development, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement in September last year. As per SIPRI, Pakistan’s defence minister subsequently suggested the country’s nuclear capabilities “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia. Islamabad has since sent mixed signals, but a senior Saudi official said the agreement “encompasses all military means”.
China, meanwhile, continues what SIPRI describes as the world’s fastest nuclear build-up. The institute estimates that up to 34 Chinese warheads are now deployed with operational forces and says Beijing possesses more intercontinental ballistic missile launchers than either the United States or Russia. China’s overall stockpile is estimated at 620 warheads, up from 600 a year earlier.
China’s Victory Day parade last year, publicly revealed the Type 094 SSBN for the first time, alongside the longer-range JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile and a previously unseen JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile. Beijing is also developing a next-generation SSBN and a new strategic bomber.
The report further assesses that China is moving towards a launch-on-warning capability supported by an expanding early-warning satellite network, with US assessments indicating Chinese satellites “can reportedly detect an incoming ICBM within 90 seconds of launch”.
Globally, SIPRI estimates there were 12,187 nuclear warheads in existence as of January 2026, with 9,745 held in military stockpiles. Around 4,012 were deployed with operational forces, while between 2,100 and 2,200 remained on high operational alert.
