NEW DELHI: Amid predictions of a weaker monsoon and lower water levels in reservoirs compared to last year, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are heading towards a major showdown over Cauvery water sharing.
The Cauvery Water Regulatory Committee (CWRC) and the Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA), on Tuesday, have advised both the states to exercise caution regarding the areas allocated for paddy sowing in their respective states, as water shortage could worsen in the second half of the monsoon season(August-September). The river Cauvery originates from Karnataka’s Western Ghats and flows eastward into Tamil Nadu.
Officials from both the states, who attended meetings with representatives from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, emphasise the need for vigilance regarding the acreage of paddy, a water-intensive crop grown in both the states within the Cauvery delta.
“Last year, we had a bountiful monsoon and the sharing of water was carried out according to established rules, but the upcoming water year is going to be a challenge, as the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a weaker monsoon,” said Vineet Gupta, Chairman of the CWRC, after chairing a CWRC meeting and participating in a CWMA meeting.
The next water year (June 2026 - May 2027) is beginning under critical circumstances. Water levels in major reservoirs in both states are at record lows compared to last year. The Mettur Dam in Tamil Nadu currently has a reservoir level of 40 TMC, which is half of what it was at the end of May 2025. Last year, May experienced excess rainfall.
Similarly, Karnataka’s major reservoir, the KRS Dam, has a current water level of 8 TMC, down from 21 TMC at the start of the water year last year.
The situation could worsen if the IMD’s prediction of a weaker monsoon comes to fruition. The IMD has forecast the Southwest Monsoon season for 2026 (spanning June to September) to be below normal, estimating it at 92% of the long-period average (LPA) with a margin of error of ± 5%. This represents one of the lowest predictions in recent years.
Last year, India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall, concluding the season at 108% of the expected levels.
Thanks to comfortable storage levels and abundant rain in 2025, the acreage for summer paddy (Kuruvai) in Tamil Nadu saw a remarkable 54% increase compared to the previous year (2024).
The average Kuruvai paddy acreage is around 4.5 lakh acres, but last year it rose to over 6 lakh acres in 2025. However, a water shortage in 2024 led to a decrease to only 3.88 lakh acres of paddy cultivation.
However, TN officials demanded that Karnataka should ensure 9.19 TMC in June water per the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal (CWDT) modified by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Karnataka’s officials alleged that TN use more water than what it has permitted. However, the CWDT award is for a normal year not for a distressed year.
