The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its southwest monsoon prediction, lowering the expected seasonal rainfall to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from its previous forecast of 92%. Consequently, the month of June is expected to experience below-normal rainfall alongside an increased number of heatwave days.
In its second-stage Long-Range Forecast of Southwest Monsoon rainfall for June to September 2026, the IMD indicated that the country's monsoon core zone, which consist major parts of mainland, will receive 90% of the LPA, with a potential model error of ±4%.
Geographically, only East and Northeast India are expected to receive normal rainfall, falling in the range of 94% to 106% of the LPA. The rest of the country, including the South Peninsula and Central India, is anticipated to receive below 94% of the LPA, while the Northwest region is expected to receive below 92% of the LPA.
Additionally, the arrival of the monsoon has been delayed by a week. The IMD had initially forecast the monsoon to reach the Kerala coast by May 26, whereas the normal date for the monsoon onset is June 1.
Scientists are also warning that the country may experience deficient rainfall, which is defined as below 89% of the LPA, while below-normal rainfall is categorized as being between 90% and 95% of the LPA. According to the IMD, a weak to moderate El Niño will prevail during the monsoon season, while a strong El Niño is expected to emerge after the monsoon.
Furthermore, June 2026 is likely to see below-normal rainfall across the country, except in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Northeast India, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. The normal rainfall average for the month of June is 166.9 mm.
Moreover, the IMD has reported an anticipated increase in the number of heatwave days in June. There could be 2 to 3 days with above-normal temperatures across the country, contributing to heatwave conditions. The regions expected to experience these above-normal heatwave days include Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat, and isolated pockets of Maharashtra.
