SRINAGAR: A 2,000-year-old Buddhist heritage site in Jammu and Kashmir’s Baramulla district could face the risk of collapse by 2050 due to continued erosion by the Jhelum River if preventive measures are not undertaken, a study has warned.
Located along the right bank of the Jhelum River in Zehanpore village, around 10 km from Baramulla town, the Buddhist archaeological complex is among the region’s important Buddhist heritage sites.
A study published in Ancient Asia titled "Assessing the Impact of Soil Erosion on the Zehanpore Buddhist Archaeological Site in Baramulla: A Remote Sensing and GIS Analysis," conducted by Bilal Hassan, Mohammad Ajmal Shah and Mumtaz A. Yatoo of Centre of Central Asian Studies, University of Kashmir have documented decades of riverbank erosion and warned that continued land loss could bring the river dangerously close to the site’s main stupa.
The researchers analysed satellite imagery from Landsat sensors and high-resolution Google Earth imagery covering the period from 1976 to 2022 to assess changes along the Jhelum riverbank.
Their analysis found significant variations in erosion rates over the decades.
According to the study, between 1976 and 1989, the riverbank recorded an average annual erosion rate of around 818 square metres, resulting in a cumulative loss of more than 10,600 square metres.
The situation, it stated, worsened between 1989 and 2000 and during this period, average annual erosion rate rose to approximately 3,616 square metres, resulting in loss of nearly 40,000 square metres of land.
The researchers linked the sharp increase partly to human interventions, including riverbed mining and infrastructure development.
Aggregate extraction near the site is believed to have altered the river channel and weakened the riverbank, increasing its vulnerability to erosion.
According to study, erosion rates declined considerably after 2000, averaging around 361 square metres a year between 2000 and 2022.The researchers attribute the decline partly to reduced mining activity and natural regeneration of vegetation in some areas.
As per the study, the accumulated loss of land has left the archaeological complex increasingly vulnerable, particularly the primary stupa located close to the riverbank.
Using current erosion trends, the researchers estimate that 10,122 square metres of additional land could be lost by 2050 if preventive interventions are not undertaken.
The study cautions that the projection is based on observed erosion trends and does not account for potentially severe flood events or future changes in hydrological conditions.
The Zehanpore complex comprises three linearly aligned Buddhist stupas and is believed to have formed part of an ancient network of religious and commercial centres connecting Kashmir with Gandhara and Central Asia.
Historical accounts have linked the wider Baramulla-Ushkur area to the journeys of the Chinese Buddhist monk Xuanzang, who travelled through Kashmir in the seventh century. The region also featured in accounts of later travellers and scholars who documented Kashmir’s historic Buddhist centres and routes.
The study has called for active conservation measures to protect the site from further riverbank erosion.
It has suggested interventions including engineering structures such as gabion protection and retaining walls, along with nature-based measures including the planting of deep-rooted native vegetation to stabilise the soil.
Without effective protection, the study warns that continued erosion could seriously compromise the primary monument in the coming decades.
In December 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had mentioned about the Buddhist heritage site in his monthly radio programme Mann Ki Baat.
The PM had described the discovery of large stupas at Zehanpore as a "proud moment" for Jammu and Kashmir and said the discovery reflects Kashmir’s deep civilisational roots and is a matter of pride for the entire nation.
He had recalled how an old, blurry photograph of three stupas preserved in a French museum helped draw attention to Kashmir's Buddhist past.
According to the PM, such findings underscore Kashmir’s long-standing role as a centre of learning, spirituality and cultural exchange.
