Conditions are favourable for the onset of the northeast monsoon over the southern peninsula in the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, forecasting a prolonged wet spell across the region over the following five to six days.
In its daily forecast, the IMD said the southwest monsoon continued to withdraw from the remaining parts of the country even as conditions developed for the arrival of the northeast monsoon.
“Isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Kerala and Mahe, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, and coastal Andhra Pradesh during 15-18 October,” the IMD said.
North interior Karnataka is likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall on October 17 and 18, while Rayalaseema may experience similar conditions on October 15 and 16, the weather department added.
India experiences two major monsoon seasons. The southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September, arrives over Kerala on the southwestern coast around June before advancing across the country.
The southwest monsoon is the primary rainy season for India, bringing relief from the summer heat and supporting the country's ecosystem and economy, particularly the cultivation of kharif crops.
The northeast monsoon, also known as the retreating monsoon, occurs from October to December and primarily affects peninsular India. Although generally less intense than the southwest monsoon, it is an important source of rainfall for parts of southern India and supports agricultural activities.
This year's southwest monsoon ended with 759.4 mm of rainfall, 12.6 per cent below the normal of 868.6 mm, according to the IMD.
One of the key factors behind the rainfall deficit has been the prevailing El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The conditions emerged in June and have been strengthening since, according to the report.
El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the overlying atmosphere.
El Niño is associated with a warming effect on the planet and can suppress monsoon rainfall in India. Its opposite phase, La Niña, is generally associated with a cooling effect, while ENSO also has a neutral phase.
Global weather agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), have predicted that the ongoing El Niño event is likely to peak in December 2026 and could become the strongest since observations began in 1950.
The El Niño conditions are also expected to persist through February 2027.
(With inputs from PTI)
