NEW DELHI: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast a near-100 % likelihood of El Niño persisting through February 2027. The strong El Niño, a natural phenomenon in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, can affect rainfall and temperature patterns.
It is the first time that WMO’s El Niño and La Niña assessments have agreed with all experts across the region.
El Niño is among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system. It is synonymous with weaker monsoon or rainfall and higher temperatures in India. La Niña phenomenon is the opposite of it. El Niño in Spanish means boy child.
The WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services advised nations to step up preparedness and early-warning efforts in anticipation of an exceptional event.
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further over the coming months to a very strong intensity, peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.
The El Niño region- the central-eastern equatorial Pacific- is already well above average – one of the tell-tale signs of El Niño – and is continuing to rise.
The widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, has strengthened markedly from an average of +1.5 °C above normal during May-July 2026 to +2.0 °C above normal in July. Weekly values subsequently increased further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately +2.2 °C to +2.6 °C above average, indicating continued intensification.
Even greater warmth is present beneath the ocean surface. In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
Together, the surface and subsurface ocean conditions provide strong support for continued El Niño conditions and the potential for further strengthening during the coming months, the Update says.
However, in a grim scenario, a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop, reaching a September-October-November 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.9°C. A positive IOD helps mitigate the possible negative impact of El Niño.
“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste.
