India supplied about 60 per cent of the diesel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb to Europe in August, emerging as a crucial source of fuel for the region as Russian exports remain severely constrained and US shipments begin to decline, PTI reported, citing Vortexa data.
Around 2,00,000 barrels per day of diesel, or gasoil, crossed the strategic Red Sea chokepoint in August on vessels bound for Europe, close to year-earlier levels after flows through the route nearly stalled in March and April. Indian refineries accounted for roughly 60 per cent of that volume, according to Vortexa data cited by PTI.
India, the world's fourth-largest refining nation, has an installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum, well above domestic fuel demand. In 2025-26, the country exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, PTI reported, citing official data.
However, India's ability to sustain these exports could come under pressure as crude supplies tighten. Crude and condensate shipments into the country fell for a second consecutive month to around 3.8 million barrels per day in August, compared with 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier, according to Vortexa data cited in the report.
Russian diesel exports, once a major source of European supply, have remained largely absent. Seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged only around 1,50,000 barrels per day during the first 25 days of August, down about 6,10,000 barrels per day from a year earlier and 81 per cent below the five-year seasonal average.
The scheduled lifting or partial relaxation of Russia's diesel export ban from September 1 may not lead to a rapid recovery. Ukrainian drone strikes have continued to disrupt Russian refineries and export infrastructure, with 32 attacks on refineries recorded in July and August, according to Vortexa data cited by the report.
An attack on the 2,60,000-barrel-per-day Perm refinery left only about 28 per cent of its crude distillation capacity operational, the report said.
The disruptions have also hit export terminals. The Black Sea accounted for about 44 per cent, or 3,80,000 barrels per day, of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year, but refinery and port disruptions have reduced available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse since a May strike.
The port handled around 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, or about 10 per cent of Russia's total diesel exports.
Russia has increasingly turned to imports to compensate for domestic refining disruptions. Its seaborne gasoline imports rose to a record roughly 1,25,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to about 4,70,000 tonnes during the month. Around 55 per cent of the imports arrived on sanctioned vessels, while India, Turkey and Morocco were among the suppliers, according to the Vortexa figures.
Indian gasoline cargoes to Russia in August were carried on sanctioned fleets and involved ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean, highlighting how sanctions, refinery outages and disrupted trade routes are reshaping refined-fuel flows.
For Europe, India's growing importance is particularly pronounced in diesel, as it helps fill the gap left by Russia while US shipments also show signs of retreat.
The US supplied about half of Europe's seaborne diesel imports from outside the region in August, or around 5,20,000 barrels per day, compared with about a quarter a year earlier. However, US shipments peaked at nearly 5,40,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before falling to around 3,50,000 barrels per day in the second half, a decline of roughly 35 per cent, according to the Vortexa data.
This leaves Europe increasingly reliant on Indian refiners to maintain eastern supply routes just as crude availability in India is tightening, the PTI report said.
The Strait of Hormuz is providing limited relief to the clean-products market. Only 37 crossings by MR2-sized or larger tankers carrying refined products were recorded during the first 27 days of August, down from 55 in July and 69 in June, according to Vortexa data.
Ship-to-ship transfers offshore Oman have continued, but most involve crude rather than refined products. Around 2,30,000 barrels per day of clean products originating west of Hormuz were transferred through such operations offshore Oman during the first three weeks of August, down from about 4,00,000 barrels per day during the same period in June.
Europe's diesel supply chain is therefore becoming increasingly concentrated. Russian exports remain depressed despite the scheduled end of the current diesel ban, US shipments have begun to decline and the Hormuz route is providing little additional product supply.
India is consequently carrying a growing share of Europe's diesel supply burden, according to the Vortexa analysis cited by PTI.
The timing adds to the risk. Europe is approaching its peak winter diesel-demand period with inventories already low, while refineries in Europe and North America are heading into autumn maintenance after operating at elevated rates. This leaves limited room for further disruptions to supply, the PTI report said.
(With inputs from PTI)
