NEW DELHI: India-US ties face a fresh strain as Washington weighs sweeping new tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. Michael Kugelman, a leading global expert on South Asia and US policy in the region who previously led the Wilson Center’s South Asia research and is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, tells Jayanth Jacob that the bipartisan push marks a serious blow to a relationship long insulated from political shifts in either capital. Kugelman warns that high tariffs, if implemented, could derail the recent recovery in bilateral ties.
QUESTION: How seriously should India view the threat of up to 100% US tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, and how much room does the Trump administration actually have to exempt or shield India from these measures?
Answer: We've seen for months how the Trump administration is willing to pursue maximum pressure campaigns against Russia's biggest oil buyers, and that suggests we can't rule out new high tariffs here.
It's unlikely India—or any of the countries targeted in the bill—would actually face tariffs as high as 100%. But we could certainly see new tariffs. After all, this isn't just about a maximum pressure campaign. It's about Donald Trump's fervent desire to be a peacemaker. He badly wants to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. And to get to that point, he first needs to get Russia to the table—and in his view, he has a better chance of doing that if he pressures Russia's top commercial partners to stop doing business with Moscow. And that's where the new tariffs could come in.
QUESTION: New Delhi has said the new legislation could have implications for the bilateral relationship. Does this mark a significant turning point in India-US ties, or can the two sides contain the dispute through negotiations?
Answer: What makes this legislation so troubling for US-India ties is that it enjoys strong bipartisan support. This is not the case of the Trump White House targeting India for its economic policies, or of progressive Democrats on Capitol Hill slamming India for its human rights record. It's legislators from both sides of the aisle embracing a bill that could punish India in a big way. For a partnership that has long prided itself on its bipartisanship, and on its imperviousness to political change in either capital, this new bill is a big blow.
QUESTION: How much leverage does Washington gain over India’s Russian oil purchases through this legislation, particularly at a time when India and the US are also trying to resolve outstanding trade issues?
Answer: It's true that last year, when facing heavy pressure from the White House, India decreased its Russian oil purchases. But that's exactly why Washington may not gain as much leverage as it's hoping to in this case. India can make a convincing case that it has already done its part to reduce its purchases of Russian oil—even as it has, over a period of several years, ramped up its purchases of American oil and American goods on the whole. In fact, until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India was the top destination for American oil exports.
QUESTION: India argues that its Russian oil purchases are driven primarily by energy security and market considerations. How persuasive is that argument likely to be in Washington, especially among lawmakers pushing tougher sanctions on Russia?
Answer: If you look at the numbers, it's hard to dispute that argument. It's true that India began importing more Russian oil after it became a lot cheaper, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As I noted above, India was importing a whole lot of American oil in the few years before the invasion. The fact that India began ramping up Russian oil imports only after they became cheaper (after the war started) backs up its argument about market considerations. Another factor in India's favor is that Prime Minister Modi has repeatedly called on Russia to stop its war. More than any other non-Western leader, Modi has pressured Russia to stop fighting and come to the negotiating table. This also suggests that India's oil purchases are driven by purely energy and economic considerations, and that they're not meant to signify India's support for the war—which it clearly rejects—at a moment when its friendship with Russia remains strong.
Of course, compelling though these arguments may be, they won't convince the US lawmakers that backed the Russia sanctions bill. They're taking a maximalist position toward Russia, and that means they won't be feeling charitable toward India.
QUESTION: Could this pressure accelerate India’s diversification away from Russian energy, or could it instead push New Delhi towards deeper energy and strategic cooperation with Russia, China and other non-Western partners?
Answer: If India had cheaper oil options than Russia's, it would likely pursue them, regardless of any pressure it may be facing. But to this point, Russian oil is still a solid option for India, from a market standpoint.
If India genuinely fears that it could face 100% tariffs, or anything close to 100% tariffs, then it will likely take new steps to reduce its Russian oil purchases. But for both economic (Russian oil is cheap) and political (it doesn't want to provoke the opposition and public by looking like it's giving in to US pressure) reasons, New Delhi will much prefer not to make significant reductions in its imports of Russian oil.
QUESTION: Beyond the immediate Russia issue, what does this episode tell us about the future of the India-US strategic partnership-- particularly cooperation on defence, the Indo-Pacific, China and critical technologies?
Answer: It's a real momentum buster. We had been seeing a slow stabilization of US-India ties after many months of tensions. White House criticism had abated, the two sides were making good progress in trade talks, a new US ambassador in India was injecting positivity back into US messaging on the relationship, and defense cooperation was slowly building up. And yet now one of the biggest sparks for bilateral tensions—tariffs--is back, with the risk, even if remote, that India could face the highest tariffs yet from the US.
The relationship is multifaceted and resilient, and it has a lot of insulation to protect itself from shocks. So this latest blow won't torpedo the partnership altogether. If the US holds back from imposing tariffs on India, or if they're imposed but modest, then the relationship will have only limited damage. But if high tariffs are imposed, then it will be increasingly difficult for the relationship to recover until the next US government takes office.
