The latest projection from the International Research Society for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University does not augur well. With all 22 models pointing to a very strong El Niño through the ensuing winter, its forecast could mean India is looking at enhanced climate-risk in the days to come.
The strengthening El Niño, coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, adds uncertainty to the agricultural outlook as the country, fresh from a patchy monsoon, is set to enter the Rabi season with concerns over Kharif crop output and depleted reservoirs.
This year’s southwest monsoon (SWM) rainfall was only 87.4 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), totalling 759.5 mm between June and September, compared to the normal 868.6 mm.
For perspective, this is the fourth-lowest rainfall recorded since 2001 and the thirteenth, since 1901. However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) describes it as ‘not bad’, considering the influence of El Niño. The all-India rainfall deficit stands at 12.6%, which doesn’t convey much on its own. Except for July, rest of months received insufficient rainfall. For instance, only five out of the total 18 weeks of the SWM recorded normal to above-normal rainfall, the rest experiencing subdued conditions. The patchy and uneven distribution of rainfall led to drought in some areas and floods in others.
Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 experienced deficient rainfall, while one region (Odisha) recorded excess rainfall, and the rest had normal rainfall. In a district-wise analysis, 282 districts (38%) fell into the largest category of below-normal rainfall, while 34 districts (5%) recorded significantly below-normal rainfall out of a total of 741 districts.
Regionally, only Central India received 97% of LPA, which was near-normal rainfall (96% to 104% of the LPA), but this was also uneven. Maharashtra, part of the Central region, declared a drought. India’s Northwest region received 94.1% of its normal rainfall, South Peninsular received 76%, and Northeast India received 74% of their respective LPAs. Rainfall in East and Northeast India was recorded at 1,017.1 mm, the lowest since 1901, while South Peninsular India recorded 542.0 mm, which is the fourth lowest since 1901 and the second lowest since 2001. Additionally, the reduced rainfall in the Southern Peninsula made it the warmest monsoon season since 1901.
Curiously, despite the weaker monsoon, India’s monsoon core zone, comprising most of the rain-fed agricultural regions, recorded 779.9 mm of rainfall which is below the lower limit of the normal category (782.8 mm-881.2 mm). The government has so far declared drought or severe drought conditions in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat. It is currently assessing more regions for possible drought declarations and support for farmers. In contrast, some areas experienced extreme rainfall and floods, resulting in the destruction of crops over 6.11 lakh hectare (Lha).
Fallow fields and empty reservoirs
The subdued monsoon has directly impacted the country’s agricultural fields and its 178 reservoirs. The latest report on Kharif crop sowing data shows a decrease of 13.54 Lha in sowing compared to last year. The most significant impact has been observed in paddy, followed by maize, moong, soybean, and sugarcane.
Paddy sowing has diminished by 16.32 Lha, with the most notable reductions occurring in Karnataka (4.58 Lha), Telangana (4.31 Lha), Uttar Pradesh (1.84 Lha), Madhya Pradesh (1.75 Lha), Andhra Pradesh (1.70 Lha), Tamil Nadu (1.67 Lha), and Maharashtra (1.21 Lha).
In water storage side, the Central Water Commission report shows that at the end of the monsoon season, the overall storage level is lower than last year and also below the normal storage levels for this time of year.
As of the end of the season, these reservoirs hold 132.734 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is 71.84% of their total live storage capacity. This amount is less than both the normal storage and significantly lower than last year, when it was 166.856 BCM, compared to a normal storage of 151.118 BCM.
Regionally, the northern region, including Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan, has 11 reservoirs monitored by the CWC, each with less water than the same time last year and below the normal storage levels for this period. Similarly, the western region, which has 58 reservoirs, also shows reduced water storage compared to last year and normal levels. The southern region, with 50 reservoirs, exhibits a similar trend.
Conversely, the Central region, comprising 28 reservoirs, has experienced normal rainfall, resulting in a better situation. While it has less water compared to last year, it is still better than the normal storage levels.
In contrast, India’s eastern region has recorded the lowest rainfall since 1901, yet its reservoirs are in better condition than last year and above normal storage levels for this period. This region encompasses 31 reservoirs. The monsoon has already dampened the spirit. ICRA lowered its growth forecast for agriculture, forestry and fishing sector to around 1%, down from its earlier 1.3%. “We remain circumspect around the potential impact of the weak monsoon on crop output and farm incomes, which may dampen rural demand in H2 (second half) of FY2027. Additionally, this would exert upside risks to food inflation outlook for H2 FY2027,” its latest report says.
Fertilizer support for rabi crops
The West Asia conflict not relenting, India has effectively managed its fertilizer distribution during the Kharif crop season and the ensuing Rabi season is set to commence with the highest recorded opening stock of fertilizers in the country’s history.
Rajat Kumar Mishra, Secretary of the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, announced that the opening stock of urea is 83.35 LMT, significantly up from 54 LMT last year. Additionally, the DAP stock has increased to 30.3 LMT from 27.8 LMT and NPK stock rose to 56.58 LMT, compared to 41.48 LMT in the previous year.
Mishra attributed the bumper opening stock to the government’s proactive measures to safeguard its food supply, purchasing fertilizers at elevated prices. “The urea subsidy has increased by 100%, and the DAP subsidy has risen by 50% compared to pre-war levels,” he noted. The government has also focused on raising awareness among farmers about the judicious use of fertilizers, while the El Niño effect has led many to reduce sowing, diminishing fertilizer usage during the Kharif season. State-wise analysis shows a nationwide decline of 27.06% in fertilizer usage during the Kharif season, with Uttarakhand being the exception, where usage increased by 6.7% compared to the previous year.
Mishra urged continued efforts toward balanced fertilizer use, the elimination of diversions, and promotion of organic and natural farming, as the West Asia crisis persists.