A very strong El Nino is likely to intensify towards the end of the year and raise the likelihood of above-normal temperature across the Indian subcontinent, according to the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
The WMO’s seasonal outlook forecasts the average sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to reach around 3.8 degree Celsius above normal during the November-January season, with the warming expected to peak around December.
The strengthening El Nino, coupled with changes in other oceanic conditions, is expected to influence temperature and precipitation patterns across several regions.
Globally, the strongest rainfall signal is expected over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, where the probability of above-normal precipitation is projected to rise sharply. In contrast, below-normal rainfall is forecast over extensive parts of the western Pacific and equatorial Atlantic, alongside a broad dry zone extending across parts of both hemispheres.
The outlook also points to an increased probability of above-normal rainfall from the Arabian Peninsula through Central Asia into East Asia, particularly its coastal regions. The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience a higher likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions, while parts of southern Africa could see below-normal rainfall.
In South America, the forecast indicates an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall across the northern parts of the continent, extending southwards too. Southern parts of Central America and the Caribbean are also expected to have an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall.
For India, the outlook indicates a strong increase in the probability of above-normal temperatures during the three-month period, which points to a warmer winter. The Indian subcontinent is among the regions in the Northern Hemisphere where multiple climate models show a substantial likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions. The emerging climate pattern could have implications for agriculture, water management and winter-season weather.
