As frenzied celebrations broke out in front of the JD (U) office in Patna, Nitish Kumar was the picture of calm assurance. His party and ally BJP had just defeated the anti-incumbency factor and beaten rival Lalu Prasad Yadav-Ram Vilas Paswan to a pulp. But as he said in his inimitable style, it was not the time for big talk.
He knew the people of Bihar had voted for the future, for development and peace by giving him an overwhelming majority because over the last five years, Nitish has turned the image of the state from that of a caste-ridden backward area to a province with hope. His “Naya Bihar” was taking shape and he was going to need that calm and assured air for the days to come.
Never before have the people of Bihar elected a leader with so much enthusiasm and hope. The results prove that the popularity of the chief minister cuts across caste and religion. Not only did women, who created a record of sorts with a turnout of over 60 per cent in nine districts, but also Muslims, Dalits, Mahadalits and upper-caste communities repose their faith in the Janata Dal (U)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance by electing more than 200 of its candidates.
Improved law and order may have been a major reason for the JD (U)-BJP landslide, but the results also showed how Nitish took up small causes and turned them into vehicles for success in the polls. He ensured that women emerged as an independent entity in the 2010 polls. In village after village, girl students rode their bicycles to school and it opened a new meaning to life for their mothers whose votes went to the JD (U).
Besides the initiative to improve the lot of the women by measures such as distributing bicycles to girl students of class IX and X, the engineer-turned politician worked astutely on the social engineering of Bihar, something rivals had overlooked. Reservation of 50 per cent seats for women in local bodies and the creation of the category of Mahadalits left no chance for Lalu Prasad and Paswan.
The Bihar polls has also thrown up new political equations. While the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Lok Janshakti Party and Congress have been decimated, the BJP has emerged stronger, winning 88 seats. Already, there is a clamour for equal distribution of portfolios from the BJP, which hitherto was considered a junior partner to the JD(U).
The emergence of the BJP cannot be wished away as its success rate is greater than the JD (U) minus the campaign of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi. In fact, the top leaders of the BJP including LK Advani, leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha Sushma Swaraj and party president Nitin Gadkari addressed close to 600 meetings in the 101 constituencies contested by the party.
Leaders of all other political parties also campaigned extensively. While RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav addressed more than 360 poll meetings, Ram Vilas Paswan addressed more than 200 meetings. Chief minister Nitish Kumar, the star campaigner for the JD (U)–BJP alliance, hopped from place to place during the one-and-a-half-months to attend more than 340 poll meetings. National leaders were also not far behind. Congress president Sonia Gandhi and general secretary Rahul Gandhi, BJP chief Nitin Gadkari, LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj also had a hectic itinerary.
Besides the decimation of Lalu-Paswan, the big story of Bihar election is the complete failure of the so-called Gandhi charisma. The Congress had fielded candidates in all the 243 seats to repeat the Uttar Pradesh experiment but Bihar turned out to be a different ball game altogether.
The results clearly showed that the magic of Rahul Gandhi had failed to charm the people of Bihar. It will now take many, many years for the party to create an independent base in the state. The tally of the party has again failed to touch double digits. During the 15-year-rule of Lalu-Rabri, Congress had become an appendage of the RJD until Rahul decided to go it alone in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. A turnaround in the party’s fortune was expected during the assembly polls. But the outcome has been humbling.
There will now be a big question on the political future of Lalu Yadav and Paswan. The bravado shown by Lalu two days before the counting where he blamed the media for being biased in favour of Nitish has gone against him. Not only has the RJD has been convincingly defeated, the results have been worse than in the Lok Sabha polls. Lalu’s appeal to the people of Bihar to give him one more chance has been rejected.
Besides, by rejecting Rabri Devi from two constituencies as well as the two brothers of Paswan, the people of Bihar have showed their clear aversion to family politics. The pathetic showing of Congress is also an indicator of the rejection of Gandhi family politics. With both the JD (U) and BJP emerging stronger from the polls, it remains to be seen whether the future of the coalition remains smooth.
Despite the celebrations and euphoria over the landslide victory, worries remain. As in all past elections, the political parties have depended heavily on criminal elements and fielded many of them. At least 50 such candidate have been elected to the assembly. Nitish sidetracked them last time by not giving them any major ministerial responsibility. Can he do so this time as the BJP, which has fielded the maximum number of bahubalis (criminal elements), has emerged stronger?
All the major parties had given tickets to candidates with pending criminal charges against them. While the BJP leads with 65 per cent of its candidates facing pending criminal charges, 55 and 54 per cent of RJD and JD(U) candidates face pending criminal charges respectively.
The victory for Nitish Kumar has come with many challenges. Nitish has no doubt cleaned up on the law and order front, laid roads to a majority areas of the state and taken many initiatives towards the education and empowerment of women. But there are many things that remain to be done. Agriculture and industry are still not developed. Then there is the issue of land reforms and development initiatives for the Mahadalits who voted for him in the polls.
Industry associations have reacted positively to the verdict. There was nothing for them during the 15-year Lalu-Rabri regime. Now something can be achieved. The state faces an acute power shortage and almost 20 thermal power projects approved by the state industrial promotion board are pending because of non-availability of coal linkage.
But the Nitish regime will ultimately be one of hope. The chief minister while thanking the electorate for the overwhelming majority, hoped that he would be able to live up to the expectations of the people.
— bijay@expressbuzz.com
