The security of Indian nationals has become the focal point of Indian diplomacy as the civil war in Iraq intensifies. There are an estimated 10,000 Indians in Iraq of whom around 6,500 live in the north, on or adjacent to the area of conflict, while around 3,500 live in the oil-rich south, around the Port of Basra. Mercifully, only around 100 Indians live in conflict zones like Mosul and Tikrit (the birthplace of Saddam Hussein). While many nurses have expressed desire to stay on in these zones, a quiet effort is underway to extricate others caught up in areas of escalating conflict. Stability in Iraq is also crucial for India, as after the imposition of American sanctions on Iran, Iraq now is our second largest supplier of oil, after Saudi Arabia.
The conflict itself is the product of a deep Shia-Sunni divide in Iraq, where the two holiest cities of Shia believers, Karbala and Najaf, are located. Ever since the end of World War I, Iraq with a Shia Arab majority has been ruled by Sunni Arabs. The US invasion of Iraq changed this equation and led to Shia majority rule. Geographically, the Sunnis inhabit the northwest, bordering Syria, and the Kurds, long persecuted by Arab Sunnis, inhabit the oil-rich northeast. With US support, the Kurds are now well armed, enjoy substantial autonomy and have even defied the central authorities by building an oil pipeline to Turkey. They have benefited from the present conflict in the north, by seizing control of the key city of Kirkuk. The majority of Indians in the north enjoy Kurdish protection.
Central government in Baghdad and powerful Shia militias control the capital and the oil-rich south of the country. There should be no doubt that even if the Sunnis establish some control of the north with the help of their tribal leaders, the Shias will never cede control of Baghdad, or allow Sunnis to take control of the holy cities of Karbala, home to the tomb of the Prophet of Islam’s martyred grandson Imam Hussein, or Najaf, which houses the tomb of the Prophet’s cousin and son-in-law, Imam Ali. In this effort, they will be backed unreservedly by neighbouring Shia-dominated Iran.
The Sunnis fighting in the north are a motley lot and describe themselves as “fighters” for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). They include radical Al-Qaeda-linked jihadis who gave the Americans a hard time, and members of Saddam Hussein’s elite Republican Guard, determined to fight Shia domination. Many of them have taken safe haven in neighbouring Syria and fought the minority Shia-dominated government there. Their stated aim is to create an Islamic emirate embracing the territories of Iraq, Syria, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon—similar to the proclaimed aim of Hafiz Mohammed Saeed to create an Islamic emirate in India.
The civil war in Iraq is a manifestation of larger Shia-Sunni rivalry, extending westwards from Pakistan, where party loyalists of Nawaz Sharif back outfits that regularly kill Shias across the country. Hundreds have perished in Shia-Sunni rioting in Pakistan after the Islamic Revolution of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. In Afghanistan, the Taliban have no qualms in dealing harshly with the Shia Hazaras. In Bahrain, a minority Sunni-dominated and Saudi Arabia-backed monarchy confronts a restive Shia majority. In Syria, a sectarian armed conflict has continued over the past four years, between a Shia minority but secular government and a restive Sunni majority, backed by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and a growingly Islamist Turkey. This conflict has spilled across Syria’s borders into Iraq.
The Shia-Sunni bloodletting, in the background of Iranian-Saudi rivalries, has mercifully not spilled into India, with a Shia population estimated at around 30 million, thanks to the restraint and wisdom shown by all concerned. Indian soil should not become a battleground for rivalries elsewhere in the world.
-The writer is a former diplomat (dadpartha@gmail.com)