Despite being pitted against BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, Congress candidate from Varanasi Ajay Rai could give his fancied rival a run for his money.
And the two main factors that could work to Rai’s advantage, include his Bhumihar background - Varanasi has 1.75 lakh Bhumihar voters out of a total 16 lakh - and local lad image.
While fielding Rai the Congress was looking to consolidate the Bhumihar votes. Besides, by bringing in a local face the grand old party was obviously trying to reap political dividends. However, the local community which also comprises Muslims, Thakurs and Kurmis suggest that a tough battle could be in the offing on May 12.
Regarding the general perception that the Congress is banking heavily on Muslim and Bhumihar votes to defeat Modi, Rai countered it by saying “not just the two communities but entire Varanasi is fed up with the outsiders, who rent a house to fight the elections and disappear from the city following their victory”.
“I’m not into caste politics. Everybody will vote for me. In fact, it is the BJP which displayed its true colour by forging an alliance with the Apna Dal hoping to get Kurmis’ vote. Moreover, Brahmins have seen what (sitting MP) Murli Manohar Joshi did after winning the elections in 2009. The Ganga is dying, the whole city’s infrastructure is crumbling. Joshi betrayed the people,” Rai said, adding that the BJP gave Mirzapur seat to the Apna Dal in a bid to win Varanasi.
Interestingly, Rai does not believe that AAP candidate Arvind Kejriwal can influence the outcome of the polls in Varanasi since he is pretty much sure that the Muslims will not vote for the AAP. Rai said that Kejriwal’s politics is ‘bhadaiti’(village theatre) and the people of Varanasi are not at all excited about his ‘leela’(act).
“The development of Muslims, improvement of infrastructure and cleaning the Ganga are my top priority. I was born in this city(Varanasi) and I know its problems. I will expose these outsiders,” he said.
According to Hindi scholar Sriprakash Mishra, Bhumihars and urban Muslims in areas like Madanpura, Sonarpura and Bajardiha voted for Rai in 2009.
“It is a five-cornered contest with the SP, BSP, Congress, AAP and the BJP. Both the SP and BSP candidates are lightweights. Brahmins (3.5 lakh voters) will not vote for the Congress. If the Congress can have an understanding with the AAP, it will be able to consolidate the Bhumihar-Muslim vote bank and Rai could give a tough fight to Modi with over 4.6 lakh solid BHUMU votes.”
“I have read the pulse of the people. This elections will have both caste factor as well as hope of Kashivasi to elect the next Prime Minister of India. The alphabets are same but regulars at meeting are really discussing whether they want just an MP or PM. Nobody is currently talking about local issues,” he added. Meanwhile, according to the amateur psephologists at the popular ‘Pappu Chai Dukan’ in Varanasi, the community-wise break-up in the constituency is Brahmins, Thakurs, Kurmis and Baniyas -7.5 Lakh; Muslims - 2.90 lakh; Bhumihars-1.75 lakh and others-1.30 lakh( including Gujaratis, Marathis, Bengalis, Sikh etc).
In 2009 elections Rai had contested on an SP ticket and came in a distant third garnering around 18 per cent of the total votes polled while his chief rival Mukhtar Ansari had secured 27 per cent.