NEW DELHI: Even as skeptics doubt success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet bullet train project in India, a study by IIMA doctorate Ramakrishnan TS, who Thursday made presentation before the Railway Board, has said that not only it will be a successful project but by 2035 from one in every two person travelling between Mumbai-Ahmadabad would travel by the bullet train. This is proposed to be the first sector to get High Speed Rail (HSR) in India.
The study said bullet train, if operationalised by 2025, would attract 4.8 crore end to end passengers (from Ahmedabad to Mumbai and vice versa) in the first year of operation itself. It said that 4.8 crore passengers would be equivalent to about 24 percent of the total passenger traffic in the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor.
The study, ‘Modal shift estimation and financial viability of High Speed Rail (HSR) in India: the case study of Ahmedabad – Mumbai corridor’ was done by Ramakrishnan TS of IIMA.
“The passengers for HSR would grow further to 9.7 crore and 17 crore in 2030 and 2035 respectively, which would be about 37 percent and 48 percent of the total passenger traffic in Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor in 2030 and 2035 respectively. By 2035, for every two persons travelling on the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor, one would be travelling by HSR,” the study revealed.
The study also said that for the estimated ridership, the breakeven would be achieved within a decade of first year of operation making it an attractive proposition for private sector participation in the development of bullet train.
Development of bullet trains is a pet project of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and efforts are on to fasten its development. However, the project has been under criticism from several quarters. As per estimates, the 534 kilometre long HSR corridor between Mumbai and Ahmadabad would cost at least around Rs 60,000 crore and sceptics feel this money instead should be used for plugging present problems in the Indian railways.
As per experts, HSR is an appropriate solution for intercity travel, especially when the volumes of traffic are stupendous. For the thesis, Ramakrishnan used passenger traffic in Ahmedabad – Mumbai corridor by common transport modes like rail, bus and air.
Although most of the HSR lines in the world were constructed on standard gauge, the study recommends that the HSR line should be constructed in broad gauge in India in order to ensure seamless operation between HSR and conventional train systems.
An amount of Rs 100 crore was allocated in the budget for having a Diamond Quadrilateral Network of High Speed Rail, connecting major metros and growth centers of the country with bullet trains. The ministry has already completed a feasibility study on the already identified Mumbai-Ahmedabad sector and another is awaited.
Ramakrishnan analysed the passenger traffic in rail, bus and air modes in the Ahmedabad – Mumbai corridor. It was analysed in terms of train-wise, bus-wise, air-wise travel cost, departure and arrival time, capacity and actual passengers travelled.
He also incorporated additional travel related aspects like time, total travel time into production hours and non-production hours in order to distinguish night travel with day travel, penalty associated with access, in-vehicle and egress travel, and income levels of passengers for the study.