There is a need for realignment of diplomacy between India and China following the June 15 clash at the Galwan Valley, that claimed 20 Indian soldiers, said former Indian ambassador to China and Pakistan Gautam Bambawale and Lt General (retd) Narasimhan, member of the National Security Advisory Board and D-G, Centre for Contemporary China Studies. While there is a need for talks and trust-building between the two neighbouring countries, New Delhi should continue to remain on its toes in terms of surveillance, said the experts in conversation with Prabhu Chawla, Editorial Director, The New Indian Express, and N C Bipindra, defence and strategic affairs analyst on TNIE’s Expressions, a series of live webcasts with people who matter.
Is China trustworthy?
Bambawale: In a relationship between any two countries, there is no question of asking if you trust each other. Ronald Reagan had once said “yes, you can trust but verify”. I think verification is more important that trust. Don’t expect any trust between any two countries in the world, but you must be able to verify what the other is doing and has especially promised you to do in the deals or MoUs or inter-governmental agreements.
Narasimhan: I maintain the same stance. But without trust, you can’t have a bilateral ties. It is for the countries to build trust and mending the relationship.
What China was doing for the last 15-20 days?
Bambawale: Because we know there is no agreed boundary between the two nations. Since 1993, we have signed many pacts and built-up architecture in those agreements of basic principles and tenets which were aimed at ensuring that peace and tranquillity are maintained at the borders. In 2020, something new has happened and that something new is the Chinese PLA, which tried to change the status quo. As a result, the architecture has now collapsed.
We have seen Chinese trying to nibble or take over land... Why are we not taking any action?
Narasimhan: They may keep trying, but they have not been able to nibble at anything...
The deals have worked for almost 25 years. But this year, it has been violated by China.
Why there is a sudden provocation? Is it strategic?
Bambawale: The time is correct — when India is battling with the Covid-19. But it is all speculative.
Narasimhan: I don’t think so.... He (Xi Jinping) is trying to fix the LAC as per his imagination... On the second question why now, the road construction was not an objection. The objection came when we were wanting to do the feeder infrastructure. That was one reason we can say... The LAC in Ladakh has been someway worrying him since 2013. Before that, there were no major incidents since 1986.
Is it a bad move for China diplomatically?
Bambawale: He (Xi) has done it for a few kilometres of Ladakh... It is a minor tactical game from China. It has strategically lost to India. China by this action has pushed India in to the hands of the West and the US. We will have a much strong partnership with also countries like Japan, Austria, South Korea and even Indonesia. I am not saying India will break-off all ties. We will resolve through diplomacy.
Does India becoming UNSC member give us more elbow to handle China?
Bambawale: I would recommend and suggest that one of the steps available to India is to disallow China from participating in our 5G trials.
Is it a diplomatic failure?
Bambawale: I don’t think it is an intelligence or diplomatic failure. We always knew there could be this possibility, but we did not know it would deteriorate so much that soldiers on both sides would die.
Is India capable of handling Chinese militarily?
Narasimhan: India is quite capable, but the use of military should be the last option.