NEW DELHI: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is facing an uphill task to hold on to the Jat constituency in western Uttar Pradesh in the run-up to the assembly elections early next year. The growing consensus within the party appears converging on a likely split in the Jat vote base.
The BJP had gained from the polarisation in western UP after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, sweeping constituencies in the elections held thereafter — the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2017 state elections.
However, party leaders believe this time the Jat votes will split between the BJP and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) due to various factors, including the farmers’ agitation. “The ground situations now seem to be different in western UP.
Even though the Jats mostly grow sugarcane in the region, which is not impacted by the new farm laws, there are signs of the community drifting away from the BJP for reasons, which include the rising input costs in farming and the perceived political marginalisation,” said a senior BJP functionary.
A CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey had claimed that the Jats had overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in 2017 and 2019 elections despite the RLD being a partner in a Mahagathbandhan with the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
The BJP had gained the community’s overwhewming support seemingly riding on the PM-Kisan Nidhi scheme, under which Rs 6,000 is directly credited into the bank accounts of the farmers annually. The outcome was such that both Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Choudhary lost the elections from Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat constituencies.
“There are 80 assembly seats where the Jat votes can decide the outcome. But the saving grace for the BJP is likely to be RLD’s lack of ability to transfer the Jat votes to other parties. The RLD, in the scenario of a grand alliance, is not likely to contest more than 35 seats, which should make the BJP the first choice for the Jat voters in the non-RLD seats,” said another BJP leader.
The Jat vote is stated to be roughly about 14 per cent in 20 odd districts of western UP. The BJP leaders hope that any losses in this region will be compensated by the gains in other parts of the state.