AHMEDABAD: The ruling BJP hasn’t given the party nomination to any Muslim candidate for the elections to the 182-member Gujarat Assembly due on December 1 and 5. The Congress has given the ticket to six Muslims and expects to win most of them. However, AAP and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of Asaduddin Owaisi too have fielded their candidates in constituencies where Congress has Muslim candidates, clearly spoiling the prospects of Congress candidates.
The Muslim vote is crucial in at least a dozen assembly seats with Congress hoping to win in half-a-dozen of them where it has fielded its candidates. These constituencies are: Dariapur of Ahmedabad city, Jamalpur-Khadia, Wankaner of Saurashtra, Abdasa of Kutch, Vagra seat of Bharuch district and Surat East seat. In all these seats, Congress has preferred sitting or experienced party candidates.
In a multi-cornered contest, where at least three parties are vying for the Muslim vote, the BJP stands to benefit. For instance, Imran Khedawala representing the Chippa Community (Muslims) is a Congress candidate for Jamalpur-Khadia seat. The AIMIM has given the ticket to former Congressman and leader of the Chippa Community Sabir Kabliwala from this seat. AAP’s Harun Nagori is also locked in the battle against BJP’s Bhushanbhai Bhatt. The Congress has been able to get Chippa community votes as well as votes from other communities. However, this time AIMIM candidate will end up dividing the Chippa votes, resulting in the BJP candidate gaining most of seats.
Ditto for Dariapur seat: AIMIM has fielded Hasan Khan, while AAP has given the ticket to Taj Qureshi. They will be fighting against BJP’s Kaushik Jain. The BJP can win if Muslim votes are divided. In 2017, the Congress’ Gayasuddin Shaikh got 63,712 votes while BJP’s Bharat Barot got 57,525 votes. The figures clearly indicate that Congress would lose the seat if 10,000 Muslim votes were deducted.
Similar is the season in Surat East where Surati, as well as Muslim votes are dominant. Congress’ Aslam Cyclewala is pitted against AAP’s Kanchan Jariwala, AIMIM’s Vasim Qureshi and BJP’s sitting MLA Arvind Rana.
Muslim vote bank
Muslim voters form 11% of Gujarat electors and are underrepresented. The Congress has given tickets to six Muslim candidates. Only once has the BJP given the ticket to a Muslim in its 27-year rule in the state. In 1998, BJP fielded a Muslim candidate from Vagra in Bharuch, who lost. Congress gave the ticket to 17 Muslim candidates, the highest ever, in 1980, out of which 12 were elected.
