AHMEDABAD: The rise of a mere 3.40% of votes has translated into BJP victories at 57 seats in this year’s Assembly polls in Gujarat. The party secured 1.67 crore votes out of 3.3 crore, enabling it to claim a vote share of 52.50%. In contrast with the 2017 elections, the party’s vote share increased by 1.5% compared to 2012’s but it lost 16 seats (see graphic).
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the state chief minister, the vote share of Congress was continuously decreasing, although the percentage of votes that Congress got in the 2017 assembly elections was higher by 4%. In 2012, the Congress got 61 seats with 38.93% votes and the BJP bagged 115 seats with 47.85% of votes.
In 2017, the Congress won 77 seats with 42.97% of the votes, which was 16 seats more than in 2012, with just a 4% increase in the vote share, giving the party 16 seats in 2017. On the other hand, the BJP’s vote share in 2017 increased by 1.5% compared to 2012, but the party lost 16 seats compared to 2012. Thus, despite the increase in votes, BJP suffered a huge loss in the 2017 assembly elections. That year, the Patidar reservation movement, and the OBC agitation impacted the BJP, resulting in losses in Saurashtra and north Gujarat zones.
In the 2022 elections, both Hardik and Alpesh Thakor, who was the face of the 2017 agitation, contested on the BJP ticket. AAP also fielded its candidates on all 182 seats. Apparently, the negligible impact of the agitation and the entry of AAP benefited the BJP.
In 2022, the vote share of Congress decreased from 42.93 percent to 27.30% due to the triangular battle. The party lost more than 15% of the votes, and the party lost 60 seats. The BJP got only 3.40% more votes in 2022 than in 2017 and has gained 57 seats.
With this percentage, now it will be difficult for the Congress to breach the saffron citadel in 26 Lok Sabha seats from the state. The BJP won all 26 seats in the 2019 election despite the assembly election loss only two years ago. A total of 3.13 crore voters took part in the democratic exercise this time in Gujarat, out of which 1.67 crore voters voted for the BJP.
Political analyst Dilip Patel says more than the percentage, the decision to change the entire Rupani cabinet after the Covid-19 pandemic has also paid off for the Modi government this time. The top BJP leadership realized that the party would face heavy anti-incumbency if the election had been fought under the leadership of former chief minister Vijay Rupani.
