NEW DELHI: Is IIT-Kanpur's prediction of a fourth wave hitting India on June 22 going to come true? Experts say that despite India recording over 84000 Covid-19 cases in two weeks, it is too early to say as no new variant that could lead to a new wave has been detected.
Most of the Covid-19 cases are being reported from seven states. Kerala is reporting the highest number of cases and deaths, followed by Maharashtra, and Delhi, which saw a surge in April after schools opened and restrictions eased, and is now reporting a spike in cases again. Karnataka, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are the other states with high number of cases.
According to Dr Samiran Panda, Additional Director General, ICMR, and head of its Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases wing, the surge in Covid-cases in the past 14 days cannot be termed the fourth wave.
Stressing that the spike is not "a uniform phenomenon for the whole country", Panda said only a few districts in some states are reporting Covid cases.
He, however, said that much depends on whether a new variant is causing the surge. The Indian SARS-CoV -2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) has confirmed the presence of two Omicron sub-variants -- BA.4 and BA.5 variants -- said to be behind the recent spike in cases.
"If we detect a new variant with an immune escape ability and serious disease-causing ability, then only we can think of it as a fourth wave. The good thing is that we are not seeing any health-system burden as yet," Panda told The New Indian Express.
Researchers at IIT-Kanpur had predicted in February that the fourth wave would start on June 22, 2022, and would reach its peak on August 23, 2022. They said that it would end on October 24, 2022.
Professor Manindra Agrawal of IIT-Kanpur said the spike in cases could not be called a wave. "This kind of ups and downs will continue. I think we should not call these ups and downs waves," he said.
Agrawal, in charge of the IIT-Kanpur CII Risk Surveillance Centre, said a wave would be when 80000-90000 cases are reported per day.
Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, co-chairman National Indian Medical Association (IMA) Covid-19 task force and its past president, said there is an uptick in numbers. Still, its size is smaller as, so far, no new variant has been detected.
According to NC Krishna Prasad, an activist disseminating Covid-related statistics, the last time, Covid-19 cases crossed 1 lakh was on February 20-27. "This surge is largely concentrated in seven-eight states," he said.
From June 1 to June 14, India has reported 84,685 new Covid cases and 156 deaths, according to the health ministry data.