GORAKHPUR: As the assembly polls in the state enter the heartland of eastern UP in the backyard of Gorakhpur, the bastion of CM Yogi Adityanath, the significance of Other Backward Class (OBC) and Most Backward Class (MBC) will play out as the stage set for voting in phase-6 on Thursday, March 3.
While the BJP will depend on the support of dominant boatmen community through its alliance with the NISHAD party in this region, the SP, largely depends on how well the caste matrix plays out in its favour. Besides banking upon its traditional Muslim-Yadav combination, SP will be looking to sail through on the support of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) which has considerable clout among Rajbhars and other MBCs over 25-26 seats. SBSP has fielded candidates on eight seats in this phase.
On the other, BSP will look to do better than last time on the support of its traditional social engineering formula involving the Muslim-Dalit-Brahmin combination.
Moreover, this phase is also marked by a number of turncoats like Swami Prasad Maurya from Fazilnagar, Lalaji Verma from Katehari, Ram Achal Rajbhar from Akbarpur, Rakesh Pandey from Jalalabad and Tribhuvan Dutt from Alapur in the fray. All contesting as the SP candidates are likely to give a boost to its prospects in phase-6.
In the penultimate phase, of the 676 candidates in the fray, the BJP has the most high-profile face of Yogi Adityanath making his assembly poll debut from Gorakhpur Urban. Samajwadi Party’s stakes are also high with Leader of Opposition Ram Govind Chaudhury being in the fray from Bansdih in Ballia. UP Congress Committee chief Ajay Lallu from Tamkuhiraj in Kushinagar and Umashankar Singh,
Legislature Party leader of BSP from Rasra in Ballia is also testing the poll waters in this phase.
In all, 57 seats across 10 districts will go to polls on Thursday. The districts under focus in this phase include Balrampur, Siddharthnagar, Maharajganj, Kushinagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Ambedkar Nagar, Gorakhpur, Deoria and Ballia.
In 2017, the BJP had won 46 of these 57 seats in contention under Phase -6. While SP had won 2 seats, BSP had performed better with 5 seats. Congress and BJP allies including Apna Dal (S) and OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) – had won one seat each. SBSP is now with the SP. One independent candidate Amanmani Tripathi had won from Nautanva.
In this election, Yogi’s performance as UP CM will be under voters’ scanner. Besides, the fate of seven of his ministers including Agriculture minister Surya Pratap Shahi from Patherdeva, Health minister Jai Pratap Singh from Bansi, Minister for Horticulture Shriram Chauhan from Khajni, Youth Welfare minister Upendra Tiwari from Phephna, Basic Education minister Dr Satish Chandra Dwivedi from Itwa, Village Development Minister Ananad Swarup Shukla from Bairia, Animal Husbandry Minister Jairakash Nishad from Chauri Chaura, will also be at stake
in this phase.
In phase-6 which has 11 reserved seats, the focus shifts from SP to BSP which is comparatively more formidable than the SP in eastern UP. BSP’s social engineering still continues to hold the ground despite back-to-back debacles in the past two assembly elections.
Even the ruling BJP would hope that the BSP remains a strong contestant to make the fight triangular in the region as it has so far been bipolar between the BJP and the SP. A triangular fight will lead to a split in anti-BJP votes.
As per the political pundits, barring Ambedkarnagar which has been a pocket borough of BSP and known to be the caste laboratory of BSP founder Kanshi Ram, the entire region covered under nine districts is believed to be the area of influence of Yogi Adityanath.
Of the 19 seats across Deoria, Kushinagar and Maharajganj, BJP had won 15 seats in 2017. With Yogi as the CM now, the influence is likely to play out more. Moreover, 341km-long Purvanchal expressway, opening of AIIMS and revamped fertiliser plant in Gorakhpur, the BJP has pitched them as its commitment towards the growth of eastern UP. It has also been harping on the relevance and the necessity of “double-engine government" phenomenon. The party will hope that it will have a strong resonance with the voters.
The poll results of 2017 reflect that the BSP is still a force in the region. Out of the total 19 seats that the BSP won, five came from this region. Even the BSP had posed a formidable challenge for the BJP in districts of Balrampur, Siddharth Nagar, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar and Gorakhpur besides Amedkarnagar where BSP had an edge over the BJP by winning three of the five assembly segments.
Total electorate in Phase -6: 2.14 crore; Men: 1.14 cr; Women: 1 cr
Total constituencies in fray: 57
Total Reserved Seats: 11
Total number of candidates: 676
Total Districts covered: 10: Gorakhpur, Ambedkarnagar, Ballia, Balrampur, Basti,
Deoria, Kushinagar, Sant Kabir Nagar, Maharajganj and Siddharthnagar
In 2017: BJP +Allies: 48 (46 BJP, 1 each of Apna Dal & SBSP); SP: 02; BSP: 05; Congress: 01and Ind: 01.