BENGALURU: The UN report on India becoming the most populous country in the world with 1,428.6 million people is being talked about across the world. Is this a demographic dividend or a disaster? Poonam Muttreja, executive director, Population Foundation of India in an exclusive chat with Bala Chauhan says that in order to leverage our demographic dividend, adequate investments need to be made in education, skill development and access to health information and services.
Is the UN report positive news for India?
The UNFPA’s State of World Population Report 2023 is rightly titled “8 billion lives, infinite possibilities,” highlighting the wealth of human resources the world possesses today.
While much of the public discourse in recent times has focused on India becoming the most populous country in the world, it is equally important to note that according to the National Family Health Survey (2019-21), India has achieved replacement-level fertility of 2.1, indicating that on average, an Indian woman of reproductive age group has two children.
India has successfully slowed down the growth of the population significantly over the past decades without resorting to coercive practices. It has invested strategically to tap its demographic advantage and position itself as the provider of manpower for countries across the world, where aging and the non-availability of workers are posing serious challenges.
With two-thirds of its population under 35 years of age, India is a youthful nation with the potential to lead the world in economic growth and development in years to come, with its continued focus on improving health, nutrition, education, skilling, and expanding employment opportunities for the large young population.
To leverage India’s demographic dividend, sufficient investments need to be made in education, skill development, and access to health information and services (including family planning (FP), sexual and reproductive health (SRH)), and addressing the social determinants of health.
Is the 1,428.6 million figure comfortable for the size of a country as big as India? Is there an ideal population in terms of figures and resources?
There are no straightforward answers to these questions. To quote the UN report, “In reality, there is no perfect population size, nor any reliable way to achieve a specific population size. Population size fluctuates for a wide variety of reasons that stretch far beyond the reach of targets and state policies.”
There is no denying the fact that high population growth rates impose pressure on finite resources, human, financial, and environmental. Evidence suggests that less than one-third of the anticipated increase in the use of natural resources until 2050 would be the result of population growth.
The report also talks about the global phenomenon of low fertility rates, which is irreversible. What steps can be taken to stabilise the fertility rates in India?
The good news is that India’s population growth rate has been steadily reducing -- from 21.5% from 1991 to 2001 to 17.75% from 2001 to 2011. According to the National Family Health Survey-5, India’s total fertility rate has already reached replacement level. By the middle of the century or sooner, India’s population is expected to start declining. However, what is important is how India got here. It is through investing in healthcare, family planning, and focused interventions like Mission Parivar Vikas that we have been slowly stabilising the population in line with the liberal, people-centric approach of the ICPD Programme of Action.
The data from NFHS-5 indicates that there is a strong correlation between low levels of education among girls and high fertility rates in India.
This suggests that a significant proportion of women in the country may not have received a formal education and may be at risk of early marriage and childbearing. The analysis of the data also reveals that modern contraceptive use is higher among women from higher wealth quintiles and those who are employed. Furthermore, girls from rural areas are more likely to marry and begin childbearing at a younger age than those from urban areas, and those with no schooling are at a significantly higher risk of early childbearing. This highlights the importance of improving access to education and family planning services, particularly in rural areas.
Is high fertility linked to low schooling among girls/young women? Does this mean that a large section of women has not received any education, are school dropouts, and are being pushed into early marriages?
Analysis of the NFHS-5 data shows that the use of modern contraceptives increases with wealth, from 50.7% of women in the lowest wealth quintile to 58.7% of women in the highest quintile. By employment status, 53.4% of women who are not employed use a modern contraceptive method, compared with 66.3% of women who are employed.
Similarly, girls with lower or no education were 12 to 15 times more likely to marry below 18 years compared to those who had received higher education.