JAIPUR: The battle for the Rajasthan assembly elections has reached its final phase, with voting to be held on Saturday. More than 5 crore voters in Rajasthan will decide the fate of the candidates. This time, there is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress on most of the 199 assembly seats in Rajasthan.
In the last thirty years, there has been a trend of power changing hands every five years. Now, the entire responsibility is on CM Ashok Gehlot to buck the trend and bring the party back to power.
Last time, he was pitted against the then Chief Minister of Rajasthan Vasundhara Raje in the poll campaign, but this time the competition is with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, who has attacked the Congress on corruption and secrets hidden in the alleged Lal diary, 14 paper leaks, increase in atrocities against women and farmers. Chief Minister Gehlot is campaigning on the basis of his social security schemes and seven guarantees. It has become a question of prestige for both high profile politicians.
Both the parties have repeated most of the tickets, contrary to the claims made in the selection of candidates. But experts believe that this time, there is neither any wave nor any anti-incumbency against the government. This is the most complex election in Rajasthan so far, in which logic and calculations of leaders will not work.
The BJP has not fielded even a single Muslim candidate and has tried to polarize the Hindu vote bank by giving tickets to saints, mahants and acharyas in Muslim dominated seats, while the Congress has fielded 14 Muslims. It is believed that like last time, the keys to power will again be in the hands of the voters of 39 seats of East Rajasthan.
The BJP and Congress have accused each other of stalling the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP). Last time, the Congress had won 35 out of 39 seats here. One reason was that due to Sachin Pilot being the CM candidate, the Gujjars were inclined towards the Congress. This time, the Congress has fielded 12 Gujjar candidates while the BJP has fielded nine but the situation is different due to the division of Gujjar votes.
The Congress faces the challenge of repeating its previous performance in Jaipur division. There are 50 assembly seats in five districts in the division. There is a tough fight between the BJP and Congress in most of the 19 seats in Jaipur district. Hindu-Muslim polarization could affect three seats of Jaipur (Hawamahal, Kishanpol and Sanganer) and two seats of Alwar (Tijara and Ramgarh). The BJP has made the contest interesting by fielding four MPs and the former state president, while the Congress has fielded the state president, eight ministers and two CM advisors.
More than 12 seats have now turned into hot seats. The BJP was successful in stopping the rebellion in Jhotwara from where Colonel Rajyavardhan Rathore is contesting. Diya Kumari of the Jaipur royal family is getting the benefit of Vidyadhar Nagar being dominated by Rajputs. She is an MP from Rajsamand and has given a lot of attention to the central leadership of the BJP after the sidelining of Vasundhara Raje. From Laxmangarh seat, the BJP has given the ticket to former MP Subhash Mahariya. In Dataramgarh seat, the JJP has made the contest interesting against the Congress's Virendra Singh by giving the ticket to his wife Rita Singh.
In Jodhpur division, the centre of politics -- Marwar is the stronghold of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot -- 13 out of 33 seats remain hot seats. Because of CM Gehlot, Sardarpura has been a safe seat for Congress every time. There is a close contest in Pokaran seat of Jaisalmer due to the entry of Hindu and Muslim religious leaders. Similarly, former Chief Secretary Niranjan Arya, who was the head of the state bureaucracy, is contesting this time from Sojat against the BJP's Shobha Chauhan. Sunil Parihar has rebelled against Manvendra Singh Jasol, who was appointed in the Congress government, making the contest triangular.
The 29 seats of Ajmer division are seeing some interesting contests. Mirdha families are up against each other in Nagaur. Other seats too are dominated by candidates from the Mirdha family. Here the RLP-ASP alliance is giving equal competition on 3-4 seats. Vasundhara Raje supporter Yunus Khan and the Congress's Habibur Rahman are in the fray as strong independents. The Hindu-Muslim issue remains in urban seats like Ajmer and Pushkar. Tonk is also in the news because of a strong leader like Sachin Pilot who is a popular face and a prominent Congress leader. Although the BJP has fielded local face Ajit Mehta against him, Pilot looks stronger.
There are 28 assembly seats in the six districts of Udaipur division i.e. Mewar, which is called the gateway to power in Rajasthan. The party which gets more seats here usually forms the government in the state, but in the 2018 assembly elections, Mewar has broken this myth and created new political equations. Out of 28 seats in Mewar, 17 seats are reserved, out of which 16 seats are for Scheduled Tribes alone. There is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress on 22 seats. Here, three seats are most discussed - the BJP surprised the Congress by fielding former Udaipur royal family member Vishvaraj Singh Mewar against Assembly Speaker CP Joshi. BJP MP Diya Kumari was given the seat of Narpat Singh Rajvi in Jaipur, while the latter was sent to Chittorgarh. Here, Chandrabhan Akya's decision to stand as an independent candidate has created a new crisis for the BJP. Dungarpur district with four seats is tribal dominated. The presence of the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) and Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) may cause the Congress and BJP to struggle.
Bikaner division has 24 assembly seats in four districts. There is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress in 19 seats. The most discussed are Bikaner West where Education Minister BD Kalla has been fielded and Taranagar where there is a tough contest between senior BJP leader and Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathod, who changed his seat, and sitting Congress MLA Narendra Budania. The factor of Jat versus non-Jat voters will be important here.
Kota-Bharatpur division has 36 assembly seats in eight districts. There is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress in most of the seats. In Bharatpur division, MP Kirori Lal Meena, Girraj Singh Malinga, who got a ticket as soon as he switched from the Congress to the BJP, and Shobharani Kushwaha, who went from the BJP to the Congress, have made the electoral contest interesting. 51% of the booths of the six districts of Bharatpur division are sensitive. More than 20,000 soldiers will be deployed on the day of polling for the security of these booths, so that voting can be conducted peacefully.
Kota division is considered to be the stronghold of former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje. In Kota division, the contest for Kota North seat will be the most interesting. Minister Shanti Dhariwal, who got the ticket in the last list of the Congress, is contesting against the BJP's Prahlad Gunjal. Dhariwal is contesting on the issue of development, while the BJP candidate and former MLA Gunjal is accusing him of corruption.
Similarly, Bari of Dholpur is the most keenly contested seat in Bharatpur. After being denied a ticket by the Congress, MLA Malinga is contesting on a BJP ticket. There is a direct contest between the BJP and Congress in six seats in the district. Like every time, the influence of Vasundhara Raje is visible in Jhalawar district. She is in the fray from Jhalrapatan. Having been Chief Minister twice and this time also being a top face among the contenders for CM, she is in a strong position.
The Congress has given the ticket to a new face from here. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla's influence is giving the advantage to the BJP in Kota-Bundi. Kota-Bundi MP Birla is projected as a big leader here and has direct influence on nine seats of the division. Similarly, the Vasundhara Raje factor is having a direct impact on eight seats of Jhalawar-Baran. Rebels will be the third factor in the elections of Kota division. Out of 17 seats in the division, there are seven seats where Congress and BJP rebels are playing spoilsport.
One of the consequences of poor ticket distribution is that 21 BJP rebels are still in the fray. At the same time, there are 11 rebels in the Congress party. Among other parties, the Aam Aadmi Party was able to field only around 40 candidates. While the RLP was initially saying that they will contest 199 seats, they couldn't even cross the 100 mark.