BENGALURU: Even as Israel has been signaling that it is preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza in response to the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas, retired Indian Foreign Service officer and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE, Talmiz Ahmad, claimed that the “mythology” around the Israeli army stands debunked.
“Israel has failed as an army at the strategic, intelligence and military levels. Hamas came and killed around 1,400 people including 300 Israeli soldiers. A music festival was being held next to Gaza without any effective security. This was despite the situation in the occupied territories deteriorating over several months. There had been settler violence against the Palestinians in the West Bank, while there had been repeated desecration of the sacred Al Aqsa mosque since January this year. How did the Israelis not anticipate an attack by Hamas?” asked the noted author on the Middle East.
He further noted the ‘delay’ in ground strike at Gaza by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and said that this could be because of serious problems associated with the attack. “For the last three days, the IDF has been threatening a ground attack in Gaza and has ordered people to evacuate northern Gaza in preparation of an apparent ground offensive, but they have not got their boots on the ground yet.
First, even if they kill several hundred civilians, as they had done in 2014, they will suffer dozens of deaths in their ranks as well. Then, there is the problem of what happens next. Will they remain in Gaza as an occupation force and suffer further casualties? Will they really be able to eliminate the Hamas leaders and rescue over 195 Israeli hostages, who may have been held captive inside the labyrinthine tunnelled network? But if there is no attack on Gaza, it would be a serious blow to Netanyahu’s standing. He is already a discredited leader back home and facing a huge trust deficit from his own people,” said the former diplomat.
“Again, if the IDF exits from Gaza after the assault, there is every possibility that Hamas will return, and with a greater vigour,” he added. In a possibility that the IDF manages to kill some Hamas leaders they will not be able to “decimate the organisation because it is a resistance movement that enjoys the support of the Palestinian people,” said the retired diplomat.
Ahmad said that under the circumstances, “The IDF may carry out a short ground strike in Gaza or there may be a negotiation for truce. The latter may not be easy for Netanyahu,” said Ahmad, adding that there is a possibility that “Netanyahu steps down and a government of national unity, made up of moderate figures, is formed.”