NEW DELHI: The conditions of the onset of the southwest monsoon are favourable and may hit the Kerala coast in the next 48 hours.
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) initially predicted the onset of the monsoon on June 4. However, experts suggested that the monsoon’s impact might get weakened as it makes its way to the mainland due to the presence of the severe cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ in the southeast Arabian Sea. The weakened monsoon can have negative implications for Indian agriculture which is a crucial driver of the country’s economy.
Scientists expressed concerns regarding the increasing number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea which subsequently affects the Indian monsoon. Studies have indicated that the frequency, intensity and duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have significantly risen due to climate change.
According to a report titled ‘Changing Status of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean,’ the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has witnessed a 52 per cent increase, while the occurrence of very severe cyclones has risen by 150 per cent. The duration of very severe cyclones has escalated by 260 per cent.
The formation of cyclone ‘Biparjoy’ in the Arabian Sea has raised alarm among meteorologists who have already warned of its potential impact on Kerala.“The monsoon may arrive within the next 48 hours, but it will not be as robust and forceful,” said GP
Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather. Cyclonic conditions arise due to the warming of the oceans. In fact, recent studies indicated that the Arabian Sea has experienced a temperature increase of approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius since March.
“This year, the Indian monsoon is expected to bring scattered rains along the west coast but will not penetrate inland extensively, resulting in widespread rainfall,” explained Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, a Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and a Lead IPCC Author.
Furthermore, the IMD has also predicted the continuation of heatwave conditions in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana over the next 4-5 days. The southeast monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019 and May 29 in 2018.
Research shows a delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala does not necessarily mean a delay in the monsoon onset over northwest India. However, a delay in the monsoon over Kerala is generally associated with a delay in onset at least over the southern states and Mumbai. Scientists say a delayed monsoon over Kerala also does not impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.
India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said. Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average of 87 cm.
Scientists concerned over rise in cyclones
Scientists express concerns regarding the increasing number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, which subsequently affects the Indian monsoon. Studies indicate that the frequency, intensity, and duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have significantly risen due to climate change. The IMD has also predicted the continuation of heatwave conditions in Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana over the next four to five days.