NEW DELHI: The Indian monsoon may be further delayed or weakened due to the presence of an anticyclone in the Arabian Sea, a cyclone in the Indian Ocean, and a powerful typhoon emerging in the Pacific Ocean.
The timing of all these oceanic activities coincides with the arrival of the southwest monsoon. However, the Indian Ocean cyclone Fabien has started showing evidence of decline. At the same time, the anticyclone in the Arabian Sea and Typhoon Mawar in the Pacific Ocean still exist.
"Fabien has already started degenerating, but it has restricted the flow of the monsoon current by 4-5 days," says Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Skymet, a private company providing weather-related services. "But the presence of the anticyclone is still a concern as it would further hinder the flow of monsoon winds towards the mainland," he adds.
According to Palawat, anticyclones move clockwise, pushing the southwest monsoon back to the northeast. For a smooth flow of monsoon winds, the anticyclone needs to weaken or fizzle out.
Moreover, a strong Typhoon Mawar has evolved over the Pacific Ocean.
It is expected to reach the outskirts of the Philippines by May 27-28, and afterward, the typhoon may enter the South China Sea. It may also impact Indian monsoon winds. "Mawar's impact would be indirect or mild on the southwest monsoon," says Palawat. "The strong pull of winds from these storms invariably depletes moisture over India. The timing of Typhoon Mawar coincides with India's southwest monsoon reaching the mainland, which would either weaken or delay it," he adds.
The timing of Typhoon Mawar nearly coincides with the normal dates of the southwest monsoon reaching the mainland. However, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has rejected any such impacts of cyclones, typhoons, and anticyclones.
"All these are speculations and not based on any scientific models, so we do not want to make any comment on it," says Mrutunjay Mohapatra, Director General Meteorology IMD. The IMD had announced a near-normal monsoon, while Skymet forecasted below-normal monsoon conditions. The IMD said the overall rainfall would be 96 percent of the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of 5 percent, while Skymet claimed it would be 94 per cent. The condition of El Nino is getting stronger, which would eventually impact the southwest monsoon. However, Mohapatra said the impact of El Nino would not be significant on the Indian monsoon.
"Every El Nino year was not a drought year, but every drought year was an El Nino year," said Mohapatra. The possibility of a 'weaker' as well as 'delayed' southwest monsoon has also started showing its impact on the early sowing of summer crops. Recent data shows sluggish progress in the sowing of summer crops, attributed to the 'weaker' monsoon, especially in rice acreage. The decrease in sowing acreage of rice has reached 2.21 lakh hectares.