SRINAGAR: In a cause for concern, at least five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalayas have been identified as highly susceptible to potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Approximately 2,704 buildings, 15 major bridges, stretches of road, and at least one hydropower project could be affected in the event of such a flood.
According to the Minister in charge of Disaster Management, Relief, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction, a scientific study conducted by researchers from the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, and published in the Journal of Glaciology, analysed 155 glacial lakes using a set of hydro-geomorphic indicators. These included lake expansion rates, the stability of natural dams, and surrounding environmental conditions.
Based on these indicators, five lakes Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkok, Gangabal, and Bhagsar, were categorised under the “very high susceptibility” class, compared to other lakes in the region.
High susceptibility indicates that, under certain triggering conditions, these lakes are more prone to flooding than others.
The study also carried out a preliminary geospatial assessment to map downstream exposure, identifying habitations and infrastructure potentially at risk. According to the findings, the five lakes collectively pose a potential threat to 2,704 buildings, around 15 major bridges, stretches of road networks, and one hydropower plant.
These findings establish a baseline for future scientific research, as well as for policymakers and implementing agencies.
The government noted that accurate prediction of flood magnitude, velocity, and warning time requires detailed data on glacial lake volumes, information that is currently lacking due to the absence of field-based bathymetric measurements across most Himalayan lakes.
The Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, has recently procured a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat, funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences. “Using this facility, bathymetric surveys of at-risk glacial lakes in the western Himalayas are planned for 2026, with the necessary financial, logistical, and security support from stakeholders,” the government stated.
These efforts are expected to generate critical datasets for hydrodynamic modelling and improve the reliability of downstream risk assessments. “Such scientific inputs are vital for evidence-based disaster preparedness and planning,” the government added.
Government authorities and research institutions are focusing on continuous remote monitoring of vulnerable lakes, targeted field studies, installation of early warning systems, and the development of eco-sensitive zoning regulations in downstream areas. Integration of GLOF risk scenarios into district-level disaster management plans is also underway.
“Researchers are developing tailored early-warning systems for mountainous terrain by combining satellite surveillance, ground observations, hydro-meteorological sensors, and real-time communication frameworks to ensure timely detection and dissemination of hazard alerts,” the government added.