NEW DELHI: India’s private weather forecasting company, Skymet, has predicted a below-normal monsoon for 2026, estimating rainfall at 94% of the long-period average (LPA) for this year’s monsoon season. The Indian Meteorological Department has yet to release its forecast for 2026. The range for a normal monsoon is 96% to 104% of the LPA.
With an error margin of ±5%, Skymet anticipates a total monsoon rainfall of 94% of the LPA of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
In its statement, Skymet described the spread as below normal, ranging from 90–95% of LPA. In its earlier forecast in January 2026, Skymet had assessed the monsoon to be subpar and has retained the same outlook.
According to the assessment, there is only a 30% possibility of normal to above-normal rainfall, while there is a 70% chance of below-normal to drought-like conditions.
Geographically, Skymet predicts that the core monsoon rainfed zones in central and western India will receive inadequate rainfall. North, west, and central regions are likely to experience a 6% rainfall deficit, while the eastern and northeastern regions are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. The southern peninsula is projected to receive normal rainfall.
Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to see below-normal rains, particularly during August and September, while eastern and northeastern states are expected to fare better.
Month-wise, June and July may witness normal rainfall, whereas August and September are expected to be deficient.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, said: “After a year and a half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific ocean–atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected to develop during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will intensify until the fall. Its return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular.”
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can also influence monsoon circulation. A strong positive IOD event during the season could partially offset the adverse effects of El Niño. The IOD is expected to be neutral or mildly positive, which may contribute to a decent start to the monsoon. However, the risk of impaired rainfall during the second half of the season cannot be ruled out, making seasonal rainfall distribution potentially uneven and variable.