NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026 (June–September), projecting rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA) with a ±5% margin of error.
This marks one of the lowest estimates in recent years and the first time in eight years that the IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall.
The outlook raises concerns for Indian agriculture amid the ongoing energy crisis, with a deficient monsoon likely to impact the crucial kharif sowing season, already under strain due to a fertiliser shortage linked to the US-Israel war on Iran. The IMD is expected to issue a second-stage forecast in mid-May.
The LPA for seasonal rainfall across the country, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 870 mm. This year, rainfall is anticipated to be around 800 mm.
The low rainfall forecast is primarily attributed to the emergence of strong El Niño conditions. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate phenomenon in which the central and eastern Pacific Ocean experience abnormal warming.
El Niño is synonymous with a weaker and uneven monsoon in India.
According to the IMD, since 1951, there have been 16 recorded El Niño years, of which only six contradicted the expectation of a weaker monsoon. Out of these, 10 years recorded deficient or below-normal rainfall.
Additionally, reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three months has also contributed to the expectation of a weaker monsoon.
The forecast indicates that the probabilities for both below-normal (90–95% of LPA) and deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) are significantly higher than normal and other categories. There is a 66% probability of below to deficient rainfall this monsoon, with the likelihood of a deficient monsoon being higher than any of the other five categories. The probability of normal rainfall (96–104%) stands at only 27%.
Except for Ladakh, northeastern states, Telangana, central Andhra Pradesh, southern Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu, the rest of the country is expected to receive below-normal rainfall.
However, the IMD’s April forecasts over the past eight years have largely aligned with actual rainfall. The exceptions were in 2018 and 2023, when predictions indicated normal rainfall, but results showed below-normal levels.
Last year, India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall, with the season concluding at 108% of the expected levels.
“Currently, La Niña (cooling of the Pacific Ocean) conditions are transitioning to neutral ENSO, prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Many weather models indicate that strong ENSO conditions are expected in the second half of the monsoon season,” said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD.
Additionally, private weather agency Skymet has also predicted below-normal rainfall of 94% of LPA.
Table 1- IMD’s prediction of the past Even years vs Actual rainfall
Years IMD’s April
Forecast (+-5% error) Actuals
2026 92%(below normal)
2025 105% (Above normal) 108% (Above Normal)
2024 106% (Above normal) 108% (Above normal)
2023 96% (normal) 94.4% (Below Normal)
2022 99% (normal) 106% (Above normal)
2021 98% (normal) 99% (normal)
2020 100% (normal) 109% (Above normal)
2019 96% (normal) 110% (Above normal)
2018 97% (normal) 91% (Below normal)
*Normal Range is 96%-104%