Exit polls released on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, following the conclusion of voting across key states have offered an early indication of electoral trends, with attention centred on West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where politically significant contests have unfolded.
The Axis My India exit poll indicates a strong showing for incumbent forces in several key states, with the Trinamool Congress projected to secure around 190 seats in West Bengal, well ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at about 90, pointing to a clear majority. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance is estimated to win roughly 175 seats, comfortably surpassing the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam alliance at around 55, suggesting a strong return to power.
In Assam, exit poll points to a clear victory for the BJP-led alliance, indicating that the ruling coalition is likely to retain power for a third straight term. The NDA is projected to win around 88 to 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark, suggesting sustained voter support for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the incumbent government. In comparison, the Indian National Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to trail with an estimated 24 to 36 seats, reflecting a relatively weaker electoral position. The projections point to a largely one-sided contest shaped by factors such as governance perception, organisational strength and vote consolidation in favour of the ruling alliance, although the final outcome will be confirmed only after the official counting of votes.
In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front is projected to edge ahead with about 78 seats compared to the United Democratic Front at 62, indicating a relatively close contest but with an advantage for the incumbent bloc. Meanwhile, in Puducherry, the National Democratic Alliance led by All India N.R. Congress is projected to secure around 18 seats, marginally ahead of the Congress–DMK alliance at about 12, pointing to a tight but favourable outcome for the NDA.
Meanwhile, other two exit polls predicted better performance of BJP in West Bengal. The ABP-CVoter exit poll projected the BJP to win between 150 and 160 seats, placing it comfortably above the majority mark of 148. The Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, was estimated to secure 130 to 140 seats, while other parties were projected to account for around six to 10 seats, the ABP-CVoter predicted.
The Praja Poll survey indicated an even stronger showing for the BJP, projecting its tally in the range of 178 to 208 seats in West Bengal. In contrast, the TMC was expected to secure between 85 and 110 seats, with other parties likely to win anywhere between zero and five seats.
However, most projections suggest that the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress is likely to retain power, maintaining its dominance despite a sustained challenge from the BJP. The estimates broadly point to a comfortable majority for the ruling party, while the BJP is expected to consolidate its position as the principal opposition with an improved seat tally. At the same time, a few projections and internal assessments present a more competitive picture, suggesting the possibility of a tighter race, which underscores the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome.
The electoral landscape in West Bengal appears to have become increasingly bipolar, with limited room for the Indian National Congress and Left parties to regain significant ground. If these trends are reflected in the final results, they would reinforce the state’s shift towards a contest largely defined by the TMC and the BJP, with regional political dynamics continuing to outweigh broader national narratives.
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls indicate a more complex and less predictable contest shaped by legacy politics and internal divisions, particularly within the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The enduring influence of J. Jayalalithaa remains a central factor, with multiple leaders seeking to inherit and consolidate her political base. The fragmentation within the AIADMK and shifting alliances have contributed to a more competitive environment, with several constituencies expected to witness close contests driven by local factors such as caste alignments, leadership appeal and constituency-level dynamics.
Across other states that went to the polls, including Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, early projections largely point towards continuity, although the margin of victory and seat distribution vary across different pollsters. These states are expected to follow more established voting patterns, though variations in turnout and local issues could still influence the final results.
While exit polls provide a preliminary snapshot of voter sentiment, their reliability remains subject to several limitations, including sampling challenges, regional diversity and the possibility of late shifts in voter preferences. Past experience has shown that such projections can diverge from actual outcomes, sometimes significantly. The final verdict, however, will depend on the official counting of votes, which will determine how closely these projections align with the actual mandate.