India has updated its climate goals by releasing its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the period from 2031 to 2035, taking a significant step towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.
The announcement comes at a time when the West Asia conflict is at its peak, disrupting global supply chains and energy security. The timing of the release of NDC 3.0 also highlights India’s commitment to climate action alongside its developmental priorities.
India's new targets include a 47% enhancement in emissions intensity reduction, a further expansion of non-fossil fuel energy generation to 60% of total installed capacity besides an increase in carbon sink capacity to up to 4 billion tonnes. These updated targets reflect India's efforts to ensure energy security while contributing to the global fight against climate change.
In its first NDC, known as NDC 1.0, in 2015, the goal was to reduce emission per unit of GDP by 33%-35% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels), achieve 40% of installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 and increase forest and tree cover to absorb 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂.
In 2022, India updated its NDC goals, with a strengthened target of a 45% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030. It also increased the clean energy capacity target to 50% of installed electricity capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030 while maintaining the previous target for carbon sink capacity. India, to its credit, has already met both of its initial NDCs ahead of schedule. It achieved a 36% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP and increased power generation from clean, non-fossil sources to 52.57%, five years ahead of the 2030 target.
Geopolitical situation and new target
India recently updated its third NDC with a new timeline, although analysts suggest that the country has set its new targets relatively late and made only a modest increase compared to expectations. For the year 2031-2035, India has set a new target of a 47% reduction in emission intensity by 2035. This marks only a 2% increase from the previous target.
Additionally, India aims to expand its non-fossil power capacity to 60%. Given its current achievement of over 52%, this target seems well within reach. It has also set an ambitious goal to significantly increase its carbon sink capacity to up to 4 billion tonnes, up from 2.3 billion tonnes.
Explaining the cautious approach towards setting these targets, the government cites the current geopolitical situation, the reluctance of developed countries to provide funding for energy transition, and India's own developmental aspirations.
The government emphasised that India’s NDC 3.0 is informed by lessons learned from the Global Stocktake report, the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), and the need for energy security in line with the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
The CBDR-RC principle suggests that while all countries should combat climate change, wealthier nations should take on a greater share of the responsibility due to their greater resources and historical contributions to pollution.
India's approach to setting its NDC targets remains pragmatic. The recent reversal of the US government's commitment to renewable energy and its renewed investments in fossil fuels has shaken India's confidence as the third-largest emitter. The Trump administration's actions to capture Venezuelan oil and pressure India into purchasing it has raised alarm bells, and recent attempts to control Iranian oil represent another setback in the fight against climate change.
Moreover, the hesitance of developed countries to commit adequate climate finance for developing nations has further discouraged India from setting more ambitious goals. During negotiations in Baku in 2024, developed nations were only willing to commit $300 billion annually for developing countries, a far cry from the estimated requirement of $1.3 trillion.
It is noteworthy that Central Electricity Authority estimates in the National Power Adequacy Plan that by 2035-36, nearly 70% of electricity capacity will come from non-fossil sources. However, the formal commitment outlined in NDC 3.0, as approved under the UN framework, sets a lower target of 60%.
Additionally, India's target of reducing emission intensity by 47% by 2035 reflects a careful approach. As a fast-growing economy, India’s intensity-based target balances developmental needs with climate ambitions. In the context of current geopolitical challenges, supply chain disruptions and energy security concerns, this target provides flexibility while remaining aligned with broader aspirational goals and a long-term pathway toward net-zero emissions.
It points at a measured approach by the government, intentionally conservative in its global commitments while aiming for greater ambition domestically, according to an expert.
An Indian officer at NITI Aayog told TNIE, “India’s aspiration for a developed Bharat —focused on generating jobs, sustaining industrial growth, and ensuring reliable energy security — aligns with global climate objectives aimed at limiting global warming.”
World’s Biggest Green House Gas (GHG) Emitter in 2024
India’s Great Track Record
1. 36% reduction in emission intensity of GDP during 2005-2020
2. 52.57% power generation from clean, non-fossil sources. Achieved 5 years ahead of 2030. 2.3 billion tonne of carbon sink created through forests and trees
Roadmap 2031-2035
1. Target reduction of emission intensity by 47% by 2035.
2. Achieve 60% of cumulative installed electricity capacity non-fossil power capacity by 2035.
3. Increase carbon sink to 3.5-4.0 billion tonne