NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted cooler days and warmer nights in most parts of the country and above-normal heatwaves in some parts, in its monthly outlook forecast for May 2026.
The IMD said above-normal heatwave days in the foothills of the Himalayas, eastern coastal states, and Gujarat and Maharashtra in May.
However, daytime temperatures will be relatively cooler than normal, as most parts of the country are expected to experience above-normal pre-monsoon showers.
Further, a higher possibility of strong development of El Niño could lead to subdued monsoon conditions, impacting agriculture.
According to IMD observation, maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country, except in regions of the Southern Peninsula, Northeast, and Northwest India, where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.
Conversely, many parts of the country, except for certain areas in Northwest India and some regions in central and southern peninsular India, will likely experience above-normal minimum nighttime temperatures.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, explained that warmer nights are expected due to cloudy weather, which is associated with above-normal rainfall predictions.
“The prediction of above-normal rainfall causes cloudy weather at night, which traps heat and makes the nights warmer,” Mohapatra said.
He also emphasised that climate change is contributing to the consistent rise in temperatures and noted the possibility of cyclonic circulation in the Southeast Bay of Bengal, which could enhance rainfall activity in May.
During May 2026, it is anticipated that above-normal heatwave days will occur in some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, northern Uttar Pradesh, and Northeast Bihar, as well as along the eastern coast states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, along with western states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra.
The number of heatwave days is likely to exceed the norm by 1 to 4 days, whereas normal heatwave days can range from 3 to 5 days across different meteorological divisions.
Heatwaves pose significant risks, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
The increasing number of heatwave days is also attributed to the transition from neutral El Niño conditions to positive conditions during the monsoon, which is concerning for Indian agriculture that largely depends on rainfall.
El Niño refers to the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is commonly associated with poorer monsoon seasons in India. In its assessment of April's weather, the IMD reported that 25 heatwave days were recorded across 10 meteorological subdivisions in the country, compared to the normal 71 heatwave days across 36 subdivisions.
The highest number of heatwave days was observed in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, each with 4 days, followed by Vidarbha, eastern and western Rajasthan, and Haryana (3 days each), western Uttar Pradesh (2 days), and Punjab and West Bengal (1 day each).
Additionally, April was the 7th hottest and driest month since 1901 for southern peninsular India, with an average temperature of 30.75 degrees Celsius, marking an anomaly of 0.59 degrees Celsius. Similarly, northwest India recorded its 5th driest and hottest April since 1901.
Last year, in 2024, southern peninsular India experienced its driest and hottest April on record. IMD data shows that 24 deaths occurred in April due to an extreme weather event.
