Only soothsayers or psephologists can claim to know voters’ minds and predict poll outcome. I am neither. But I am still making three predictions about elections in the four state assemblies and a union territory. And I am sure the electorate verdict will bear me out after the EVM machines are opened. One, the Congress will not get even one additional vote or seat over what it already has. Two, the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP ) will improve its tally, both in terms of seats and votes. Three, while the BJP vote share has fallen in every election over its peak performance in 2014 Parliament elections (Delhi and Bihar are ready examples), Kerala will be an exception. The BJP’s votes will nearly double in the forthcoming Kerala assembly election compared to its 10 per cent vote share in the last LS polls.
Let us start with Tamil Nadu. There could be little doubt that the ‘Amma’ factor will overwhelm everything else in the State. The Rahu-Ketu eye on the Congress horizon since 1967 that kept it out of power in Tamil Nadu for so long as half-a-century still continues to haunt the party, which once had such popular leaders like K Kamaraj of “parkalam” (we shall see) fame.
As for the results in Tamil Nadu, there can be no doubt that the BJP that is leading yet another front there, will make substantial gains in terms of vote percentage even in a scenario where the power game will be a two-party, bitter personal rivalry, play. While I do not hazard a guess on the number of seats contesting parties may win, the BJP’s vote share will surely improve.
The stars indicate that the BJP has an even chance of winning power in Assam replacing the 15-year Congress rule. The Tarun Gogoi-led state government has made no breakthrough in the perennial problem of Bangladeshi flooding into the State, thereby shooting up the percentage of Muslims in the demographic profile of the State.
In 1985, the people of Assam gave a huge mandate to the AGP to solve this problem. But the AGP split and that enabled the Congress to crawl back to power. A second chance to the AGP leadership that had led the 1983 struggle against this determined infiltration to change the cultural as well as demographic character of the State, also failed to get the hoped for result.
The virtual shrinkage of support to the AGP led to the rise of a Muslim communal party led by an Assamese perfume businessman — AIUDF — which emerged as the main opposition in the assembly elections in 2011. The people subsequently seemed to be looking to the BJP for a break through this communal cauldron that is threatening India itself by promoting divisive communal forces in this sheet-anchor of our country.
No political analyst will risk his reputation in the game of psephology by forecasting that the BJP has a chance of coming to power in West Bengal and/or Kerala, the two Leftward states. The main contenders in both the states are banking on solid Muslim votes with the cadre aggressiveness adding muscle — and violence — to the campaign.
That the earlier aggressive communist cadres have equal and no less brutal challengers in the Trinamool Congress is seen on the streets of West Bengal. The Congress has to live with many of its supporters swinging to the Mamata Banerjee bandwagon. The once Central ruling party has now to look for an election shelter in the Marxist highways. The Mamata charisma has taken a considerable beating with her five-year hold on political power being seen as nothing other than the Trinamool leaders taking over the extortion business from the Marxists, who used to do it during their three-and-a-half decades of rule.
In the 2011 Assembly elections, the CPM had been humbled to only 40 seats with the Trinamool Congress under Mamata Banerjee winning 184 seats out of the 283 elected members. The BJP did not win any seat. However, in the 2014 Parliament elections, the BJP managed to put up an impressive show with two Lok Sabha seats.
Given the public disillusionment with the ‘Poribortan’ that the aggressive lady Chief Minister promised, Mamata Bannerjee is on the defensive now. The reports are that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign has presented a third alternative with its sole emphasis on development.
The bread and butter issues and the massive persistent unemployment in an environment of violence have emasculated a naturally dynamic people that Bengalis normally are. Many political observers on the other hand see the BJP emerging as a strong group in the new Kerala Assembly where the Marxist-led LDF and Congress-led UDF will be the main contenders for power. The Congress-led UDF like the Congress of 2014 parliamentary elections at the Centre is hit by a plethora of corruption charges.
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy has his share of troubles, battling an enquiry into charges of bribery from a fraudster Sarita Nair who claims she has paid the Congress leader cash to help her get his umbrella protection for her fraudulent Solar venture. The next in political influence Mani, leader of the Christian party Kerala Congress(M), had to quit as Finance Minister when the court ordered registration of an FIR against him for alleged receipt of `one crore from bar owners for changing the prohibition policy.
Sometimes, coincidences are almost miraculous. TMC chief and Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee is mired in the Saradha chit fund scam with several of her ministers chargesheeted in it. In Kerala, Oommen Chandy’s credibility has hit rock bottom with the Sarita Nair’s Solar scam and statewide loss of savings of thousands of middle class families. Both governments have their other members also dragged into court ordered investigations into bribe allegations. The two-front contests, traditional arena for political rivalry in Kerala, is now rocked by the formation of a strong new party that has been sponsored by the powerful General Secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharmapracharani Yogam (SNDP), Velappalli Natesan.
The Hindu OBCs who have been badly affected by the Oommen Chandy government’s sudden imposition of Prohibition throwing lakhs of OBCs out of jobs and closure of bars and legitimate alcohol making and distribution business, have now rebelled and have formed a political party. This has aligned with the BJP and is contesting all the seats.
There is a strong victim feeling among the Hindus in the State where they have now been reduced to mere 51 per cent from over 70 per cent only 20 years earlier. The Hindu dissatisfaction had expressed itself in the 2014 Parliament election itself. From 2014’s 10 per cent plus, the BJP had polled 16 per cent in the panchayat elections last year.
With the firm support of the OBC Ezhavas this year, the BJP is expected to make its debut in the State Assembly in significant numbers. That could mean both beginning of the end of the two-front play as well as entry of the BJP as a serious contender for power soon.
The author is a Rajya Sabha MP and a political commentator.
Email: punjbalbir@gmail.com
