The horrific war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza and beyond has severely affected West Asia, fuelling profound instability and bringing barely-recessed ethnic divisions to the fore with a renewed intensity of vengeance. The recent ceasefire agreement inked in Doha, mid-wifed by US and Qatari mediators and supplemented by earlier resolutions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly, marked a critical juncture for Israel and the broader region. Given the actions of last week, the hope for a lasting peace beyond the ceasefire seems shaky.
The ceasefire, which kicked in a day before Donald Trump took oath as president for the second time, has brought much-needed relief to the beleaguered residents of Gaza. It has brought respite to the families of the released Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and perhaps a sense of closure for the families of the Israeli hostages who have either died in captivity or were killed in acts of retribution.
A cessation of violence, even if it stays only for the first phase of six weeks of truce before the later phases of settlement and reconstruction, would open doors to the resources Gaza requires to make the enclave liveable in the interim. For Israel, it would bring relief from more casualties, psychological strain and economic setbacks.
However, some big challenges remain in Gaza, Tel Aviv and Washington. Hamas faces internal dissent from factions opposed to reconciliation. In Israel, while 24 ministers supported the deal, eight opposed it. The Benjamin Netanyahu government’s security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned in protest against the hostages-for-prisoners swap, and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to topple the government. But the biggest threat to the prospect of lasting peace may have emanated from Washington, where Trump recently met Netanyahu.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had taken active roles in mediating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, are rethinking their hopes for the deal after some recent utterances from Trump. The grand Saudi-Israel reconciliation, which was the ostensible trigger for Hamas’s actions on October 7, 2023, seemed back on track before Trump talked about a “take over” of Gaza and displacement of more Gazans into neighbouring countries. On Wednesday, Riyadh reiterated its old stance that no rapprochement is possible before a Palestinian state is established.
Yet, there are enough good reasons to persist with a lasting peace deal. It can substantially alter the regional dynamics. For Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, the deal could reduce security risks and expand cross-border trade and reconstruction. Jordan, with its large Palestinian population, might see a decline in political tensions and refugee pressure. Lebanon and Syria, already burdened by their own wars and internal contradictions, could experience significant shifts in geopolitical alignments.
A deal would also affect Iran’s regional influence. Tehran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad has long been destabilising. The peace agreement would weaken Iran’s narrative of resistance against Israel, diminishing its hold over militant groups in Gaza and beyond. This shift could ease tensions in southern Lebanon and Iraq, perhaps paving the way for greater regional cooperation.
If successful, the Gaza-Israel peace deal could serve as a model for resolving other longstanding regional conflicts. From Syria to Yemen, Lebanon to Iraq, and even Libya, it could demonstrate how diplomacy, compromise and economic cooperation can address the underlying issues that perpetuate conflict.
In Syria, the peace deal would act as a precedent for multilateral negotiations, demonstrating the effectiveness of compromise over military escalation. The international focus on Gaza could shift attention away from militarised solutions in Syria, providing an opportunity for renewed diplomatic efforts with the departure of the Bashar al-Assad regime.
Lebanon’s political landscape, shaped by Hezbollah’s influence, could also change. If the peace agreement addresses key Palestinian grievances and reduces hostilities with Israel, Hezbollah’s justification for maintaining its armed presence might weaken. This could alter Lebanon’s internal dynamics, fostering greater unity within.
With the election of Joseph Aoun as the new Lebanese president and the International Court of Justice’s Nawaf Salam designated prime minister and tasked with the responsibility of forming a government that would hold office till the next elections in 2026, Lebanon stands on the cusp of a new era. Conversely, a failure to address critical issues might embolden Hezbollah’s anti-Israel rhetoric and prolong political instability.
The impact on Iran would be significant. Iran’s support for militant groups like Hamas and others has been central to its regional strategy. The Gaza-Israel peace agreement would challenge this approach, potentially refocusing Iran’s efforts on domestic issues or other regional theatres like Iraq and Syria. Iran might double down on its support for proxies, complicating stabilisation efforts in the region.
Turkey, which has historically supported Palestinian rights while criticising Israeli policies, might recalibrate its foreign policy. Ankara could seek to balance its advocacy for Palestinians with a more pragmatic approach toward Israel, strengthening economic and strategic ties. This shift would influence Turkey’s role in regional conflicts, particularly in Syria, and encourage more cooperative relationships with the Gulf states.
The impact of the deal extends far beyond Gaza and Israel. If successful, it would inspire other regions grappling with deep-rooted conflicts, demonstrating the power of addressing underlying causes, fostering economic cooperation, and prioritizing human rights. The agreement could set a precedent for other nations with similar disputes, urging them to embrace peace-building strategies that are inclusive, fair and forward-looking.
This agreement would shift the focus from militarised solutions to diplomacy, paving the way for a more inclusive, peaceful future. Ultimately, its success would mark a turning point for Gaza and Israel, offering a hopeful model for the entire West Asia.
(Views are personal)
(manishtewari01@gmail.com)
Manish Tewari | Lawyer, third-term MP, former Union Information and Broadcasting Minister