There is much heartburn in India over arch-adversary Pakistan’s role in mediating the United States and Iran contretemps during the current two-week ceasefire. Now, with the talks having failed, many Indian commentators are gloating, “We told you so.”
Without quite being churlish, we must reiterate the difference between messengers versus mediators and, as matters stand, hosts versus participants. But credit must be given where it is due. Pakistan’s stature has, indeed, gone up after hosting the US-Iran talks. And now we hear its troops have also reached Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan, which is staring at a default on international loans desperately needs a cash injection. Which might better explain its recent actions more than all its crowing over its success in international forums, it is actually looking for its next quick fix to save it from the abyss.
In the meanwhile, petrol and cooking gas shortages, not to speak of power cuts and looking ahead to the hot summer, India’s squeeze on its waters does not augur well for the mercenary and middleman—we won’t use the “d” word that our external affairs minister, quite undiplomatically, if aptly resorted to.
Indians, on the other hand, especially our intelligentsia, have been pressing for some statement, if not intervention, in the ongoing imbroglio. Especially voiced from certain influential quarters, including a phalanx of our former senior diplomats, is a demand to support Iran and condemn the US-Israeli aggression in the Gulf. Some have even sighed, somewhat wistfully, for an ‘aman ki asha’ redux, a resumption of people-to-people dialogue even when the other side has threatened to nuke India no matter who attacks Pakistan.
Strange times? Nothing compared to US President Donald Trump’s threat of forever destroying Iranian civilisation. That single post, laced with expletives, has earned its place in history books as the most un-president-like social media post ever. Trump himself will be remembered for much else, even if his face does not end up adorning Mt Rushmore, which might be his most cherished wish. Even more than the Nobel Peace Prize, which he got second-hand from its last Venezuelan recipient. Indeed, that post has invited some to call him mentally unsound, invoking the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution to force him to step down.
Not going to happen, though. Why? Because everyone knows that we must not make the mistake of taking the US President literally, even if we take him seriously. Not overreacting to him for playing ‘crazy’ to squeeze out a better deal should, by now, be common sense. Although it still seems pretty uncommon in the Left Liberal media all over the world. Both US allies and global media have watched from the sidelines, seemingly reacting much more to Trump’s posts than to what is actually happening in our world.
But those in the know see these moves as yet another spell of Trump’s unpredictable manoeuvres. As is the current ceasefire itself, which seems already to be tottering. The US and Israel joint operation may well be preparing for its final assault even as this column goes to press. The world has indeed become much more predictable than ever before in living memory. This makes established expertise, more often than not, not just inadequate but plain wrong.
India and Pakistan, as is obvious, cannot be compared, let alone hyphenated. As the US-Israel war on Iran enters a crucial phase, Indians should get over such consternation, not to speak of indigestion. That is why Indians need not worry too much about the leverage that Pakistan, because of its physical and religious proximity to Iran and its strategic position as the only official US ally in the subcontinent, enjoys.
In fact, as the war enters its very dangerous endgame, with strangely abusive, perhaps diversionary outbursts by Trump on his own Truth Social platform, India’s stoic silence will stand us in good stead. All the more reason why India’s current season of ‘Pakistan envy’ is misplaced.
Even as US Vice President J D Vance, along with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner Special Envoy for Peace and Steve Witkoff, US Special Envoy to the Middle East have returned to Washington apparently empty-handed, India’s options are far from cramped or limited. The world order is changing, and it is time we try to position ourselves to take advantage of it.
The Indian Ocean, the only ocean named after a nation, should be our sphere of influence. Sooner or later, we have to offer, if not to police it, at least to safeguard its waters from forces hostile not only to us but to the emerging realignment of powers. India is already a major stakeholder and beneficiary of the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).
With the Strait of Hormuz threatened, IMEC may well reemerge as a viable alternative. It would be a dream come true to connect India to Europe, with which we have a free trade agreement, via West Asia, which hosts strategic allies such as Israel and the UAE. Announced at the 2023 G20 summit, IMEC would cut transit times by 40 percent, boosting trade, creating jobs and fostering economic integration through rail links, shipping routes and energy interdependency.
India’s time has come. By maintaining its dignity and retaining the trust of all parties, India is well-positioned to move to the high table. There is no need to make moralistic noises or take up pious postures. We may well remember that non-alignment, which we may call multilateralism or strategic autonomy, can well be as realistic, not to speak of transactional, when needed.
Until then, we can always call for a cessation of hostilities and peace in the region. India has—and must continue to—stand for peace. But not at the expense of our legitimate interests. In our own subcontinent, we have ensured energy security for our nearest neighbours. Now we should not adopt a holier-than-thou façade that makes us seem preachy or sanctimonious.
India has already taken sides without spelling it out. No rush to do so, but our stance should be clear when the time comes. Or even a bit before the real winner of the war swoops down to claim all the spoils or, should we say, spills.
Makarand R Paranjape | RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE | Author and commentator
(Views are personal)
(Tweets @MakrandParanspe)