Politics in India is getting murkier and curiouser as the scheduled 2014 general elections approach. Not only are there confusing signals emerging from quaint political statements but intrigues and wheeling dealing have touched a new high.
Just when pollsters began to take at face value Congress heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi’s statement that he is not interested in donning the prime ministerial mantle has come his hint that he is available. Likewise, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who was written off for a third term in office has now indicated that if Mrs Sonia Gandhi and the party want, he could still think of a fresh term. The Congress is wooing Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) unabashedly, holding out the carrot of funds inflow to meet his long-standing demand for special backward state status to Bihar.
A recent meeting between Ahmed Patel, political secretary to Congress President Sonia Gandhi, and JD(U) President Sharad Yadav has only lent credence to the speculation of a new political alignment. Recently, the Congress bowed to Nitish’s demand and replaced Bihar Governor Devanand Konwar with D Y Patil. Nitish had not been seeing eye to eye with Konwar on many issues, particularly on appointment of vice-chancellors in various universities of the state. Konwar was appointing vice-chancellors without consulting the chief minister. Konwar’s transfer as Tripura governor is therefore a major victory for Nitish.
Likewise, last year, the then Human Resources Minister Kapil Sibal had to bow to Nitish’s demand for a central university in Motihari. Sibal wanted the university in Gaya, but Nitish persisted with his demand for Motihari. Finally, Sibal lost out to Nitish as the Congress decided to give in.
The promise of goodies to Bihar provoked Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav to threaten to withdraw support to the UPA government and to call Congress names, but one airdash by Finance Minister Chidambaram to Lucknow to share the dais with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, humour him up and promise financial accommodation to UP was enough to make Mulayam sing a different tune.
Mulayam now says he is not withdrawing support to the UPA just yet but he still insists that the general elections would be held this year and not next year. The implication is that he is postponing the withdrawal of support for a few months. If, in the meantime, the Congress can hold out some more carrots, he would predictably be ready for a new bargain.
But be that as it may, there is no doubt that Mulayam’s is effusive praise of Lal Krishna Advani and his assertion that the erstwhile Vajpayee government was better than the present Manmohan Singh government have set the Congress aflutter.
His son, Chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s blistering attack on the Congress alleging that anyone who does not act according to the Congress’ wishes faces “persecution” through the CBI a couple of days after Chidambaram met him has confused observers who thought the Finance Minister had brought about a change of heart.
Then there is the redoubtable Beni Prasad Verma, Union Steel Minister, who has had to eat the humble pie once at Congress behest after he blamed Mulayam of working with terrorists but is now firing fresh salvoes at Mulayam every other day with the Congress looking on passively. His latest was that SP would manage to win a bare four seats of the total of 80 from UP in the Lok Sabha elections and that the four elected members would form a funeral procession for the party.
It makes for a perfect drama with the standard melodrama, comedy and pathos. Having lost the support of first the Trinamool Congress and recently the DMK, the Congress is in something of a jam. With the UPA’s numbers down to 231 in the Lok Sabha reducing the Manmohan Singh government to a minority, there is a scramble for new alignments.
One can hardly fault the Congress for believing that the Janata Dal (U) would be a more reliable partner than either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party. But Nitish Kumar is no simpleton as he was thought to be a few years ago. He knows that this is a time when he can extract his pound of flesh from either the Congress or the BJP. For Nitish leaving the NDA and shifting loyalties to the UPA would be no easy decision. Flirting with the UPA is one thing but making a complete about-turn by finding new virtues in a Congress which he has always spoken against is quite another. His credibility would be at stake and BJP would exploit it to the hilt.
There is also the factor of Lalu Prasad Yadav. While there is little danger of Lalu gravitating towards the BJP given his past record of breathing fire against it, his unflinching loyalty towards the Congress will militate against the Congress giving special treatment to Nitish as part of a Central coalition. In terms of seat sharing in the Lok Sabha elections, there would be huge problems of adjustment which may well prove insurmountable.
The Congress could ditch Lalu and tie up only with Nitish but that may well evoke sympathy for Lalu at the cost of Nitish. Nitish has indeed gone too far in expressing his antipathy towards Modi to now make peace with him without loss of credibility and to risk losing his hold on Muslim voters. But if the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate is not Narendra Modi he may still weigh his options. However, with the BJP unlikely to announce its prime ministerial candidate before the Lok Sabha elections, Nitish, to whom Modi is anathema, could well face a lingering dilemma. Yet, by declaring at his mass rally in Delhi “Ya toh abhi do, ya chaudah ke baad zaroor do ge (Either give special category status now or after 2014 elections),” he has positioned himself as going with whoever gives the special status to Bihar.
Clearly, while the Congress’ priority is to get the JD (U) on board, it is not putting all its eggs in one basket. It has held out an olive branch to Mamata Banerjee too with hints of financial accommodation but the Trinamool supremo is not an easy nut to crack.
The Congress and the DMK could still come together closer to the elections or after it but this is one of many imponderables of Indian politics where opportunism rules supreme.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a veteran journalist and author.
E-mail: k.kamlendra@gmail.com
