A few state by-elections are rarely an accurate index of the prevailing mood of the voters across the country. But if there is a trend that is visible in the recently held six by-elections in five states, it is that while the BJP is making limited inroads in two states where it has never won a seat—Kerala and Tripura—by increasing its vote share, the Congress is organisationally too weak to take substantial advantage of an emerging younger leadership and of the BJP’s stony silence on the Lalit Modi issue.
Except Kerala, where the Congress-led UDF is still riding high, thanks to the CPI(M) drift, the BJP is the runner-up in the two by-elections in Tripura and has inched forward in Kerala. The BJP’s rise in the southern state—it bagged 10 per cent of the votes in the 2014 general election, up from 6 per cent in 2009—is apparently hurting the Left.
In the Aruvikkara by-election, CPI(M) Kerala Secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan said the BJP had split the anti-Congress vote. The vote shares of the BJP went up by 17 per cent while Congress and CPI(M) shares dipped though the Congress did win the seat.
In the lone Madhya Pradesh by-election, the BJP won comfortably though its margin of victory was reduced.
This was despite the Vyapam scam that the Congress has been striving to propagate.
The most ironic and ominous development for the Congress nationally has been the diatribe of the once fiercely conformist Hans Raj Bhardwaj. Removed as Karnataka governor by the party sometime ago, he said in a newspaper interview that the Congress, in its current form, was in no condition to stop the Narendra Modi juggernaut. Bhardwaj added that Rahul was “out of touch” with the ground reality.
“No, they are not in a fit state of health to control this powerful campaigner (Modi) who is backed by a powerful cadre. That is why there was a virtual walkover in 2014,” he said, responding to a question on whether the Congress had the ability to counter Narendra Modi.
“Now there is no discussion. Where is the Congress today? You tell me who is working (to revive the party). The Congress must put forward a programme by which we can strengthen our own weak links. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, where we have no presence, how can we revive the party there? You tell me how can they win in Uttar Pradesh or Bihar? There is no plan. You tell me who is doing what to revive the party?” Bhardwaj asked.
Asked if Rahul was the right person to lead the party, he said, “Rahul is a young man. He has to lead the young people. But he is not in touch with the senior people, he doesn’t show any inclination. So he is also out of touch.”
Bhardwaj is not the only one who was itching to flex his muscles in public. There would be many others among the seniors who would perhaps come out into the open if Rahul goes about his plans to sideline them, in his tactless, brazen manner. Finally, the old guard would lose out, but the damage that would be caused to the Congress party in the interim would be considerable. A major revival for the Congress is, therefore, not on the cards.
k.kamlendra@gmail.com
Kanwar is a former journalist