If the World Development Report 2013 is to be believed, 600 million additional jobs would be required globally by 2020 — largely in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa — to absorb the rising tide of working-age population. In a world where trade is shrinking and growth is stagnant, it is a moot point whether so many working-age people can be employed. The danger today is from a combination of volatile politics and the return of outdated economic ideas (such as protectionism) that feed into each other. History shows this combination is fatal — for economy and peace.
Job creation is an imperative need and the report rightly points out that jobs are critical to reduce poverty, make cities work, provide youth with alternatives to violence. Africa and Asia together will account for 86 per cent of all growth in the world’s urban population over the next four decades. This unprecedented increase will pose new challenges in terms of jobs, housing and infrastructure. Africa’s urban population will increase from 414 million to over 1.2 billion by 2050 while that of Asia will soar from 1.9 billion to 3.3 billion, according to a report produced by the UN Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The largest increases in urban population are expected in India (497 million) and China (341m).
There are eerie similarities between what is happening today and what happened when the last round of globalisation ended just before the start of World War I. Global markets were disrupted first by economic warfare, then by post-war protectionism. Prices went berserk with a number of major economies suffering from both hyperinflation and steep deflation. The technological advances of the 1900s petered out. Six hundred million jobs may be a tall order, but some effort in that direction may prevent a repeat of that horrible past with all its attendant problems.
