It is not going to be easy for the British to decide whether or not to exit the European Union. It is a classic case of “much might be said of both sides” when it comes to viewing it through the prism of economics. Staying in the EU, Britain has been enjoying the benefits of free trade, namely access to markets and cheaper resources. Supporters of Britain’s exit (Brexit) from the EU argue that the country would stand to gain more from the departure as it could then negotiate better bilateral deals with major nations, including India. Each camp has been putting out numbers in support of their claims which seem equally convincing. But British industry leaders appear to be favouring continuation with the EU. India Inc, in consonance with the British industry, too has been gently putting across the view that Britain should stay put with the EU.
The Indian industry body, Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), while acknowledging that it was for the people of Britain to decide, pointed out that Brexit would “create considerable uncertainty” for Indian business organisations functioning in the UK. British Prime Minister David Cameron, who is against Brexit, has been citing how his government has been able to strike substantial deals with the US, Japan, China and India, by being a part of the EU. But his cabinet colleague of Indian origin, Priti Patel, argued the opposite saying that freed of EU’s shackles, Britain could develop stronger links with India. What might swing the mood in favour of Brexit would be tricky and emotional issues such as migration. Supporters of Brexit know that they can strike a chord among people on how leaving the EU would give Britain control over its borders to check unwanted migration. Other emotive subjects, many being bandied about by the right-wing, are nationalist pride, sentiment and identity, and total sovereignty.
There have been fluctuations in public mood. Cameron has bargained for many changes in the UK-EU relationship which address many concerns such as migration, free movement, continuation of British pound, sovereignty and business competitiveness. Though opinion polls suggest both sides have considerable support, two factors could swing the mood against Brexit: concessions won by Cameron and fear of unpredictable scenarios.