Call it a calculated risk or sheer gamble against anti-incumbency, with BJP giving tickets to 72 new faces to contest by denying the tried-and-tested warhorses of the party, rebellion is brewing among its ranks in Karnataka. It appears to have put the party in a spot ahead of the May 10 polls. The latest tectonic shift involving former chief minister Jagadish Shettar quitting BJP and joining Congress over being denied a ticket to contest from his constituency Hubballi-Dharwad Central has boosted the Grand Old Party’s confidence. Shettar is now armed with a Congress ticket for the same constituency. The party hopes to cash in on the “Lingayat wave” to boost its seat tally following Lingayat leader Shettar’s move into the party fold. The party is hoping to see the Lingayats (constituting 20% of the state’s population) turning against the BJP and gravitating towards the Congress. They are looking at benefits not just in the Hubballi-Dharwad Central constituency but in at least 20–25 adjoining ones. The Congress hopes to bag 140-plus seats in the House of 224.
However, the BJP leaders are expressing confidence in winning 130–140 seats despite the latest developments, which saw six seasoned BJP leaders quitting the party within a week. This included former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi (also a Lingayat leader) and Shettar. Savadi joined the Congress earlier and was given a ticket to contest from Athani, which the BJP had denied him. Bringing in new faces was BJP’s successful experiment in Gujarat in its December 2022 polls. The gamble worked there but did not appear to do so here. Senior BJP leaders had not expected a rebellion of this scale.
JD(S), regarding candidate selection and outreach, is doing better than Congress and BJP. It is fairly successful in overcoming the family- and sub-region-centric party tag. It has gone beyond its family to field a party worker in its bastion, Hassan, and is trying to make gains beyond the Old Mysuru region.
Senior BJP central leaders are in Karnataka to stop rebels from quitting the party and convince them about the importance of new faces to contest. It remains to be seen whether voters in constituencies whose leaders have quit the party to contest independently or from another party will vote for the leader or the ideology. The BJP is hoping for the latter and the ‘Modi Magic’ to swing it their way when Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins his rallies in the state.
