Because of the surprises they throw up, there is something very exciting about Indian elections.
The verdict in Jammu and Kashmir was not so unexpected, insofar as the National Conference was expected to emerge as the single largest party and form a government with independents or the Congress or both if it fell short of the magic figure.
This calculation was based on the fact that at the height of the anti-incumbency against it in 2002, the NC, with its vast organisational base, had still emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats though it did not go on to form a government.
The surprise of this election was the ground the PDP has gained in the Valley at the expense of NC and the strides the BJP has made in Jammu at the expense of the Congress. And yet, and this is the paradox of Indian politics, it is the NC and the Congress who may form a government, even as they have lost ground.
The stage appears set now for a NC-Congress Government in J & K, even as the arrangement was yet to be sewn up at the time of writing.
Dr Farooq Abdullah has ruled out any truck with the BJP, which has gained manifold in the Jammu region. That being the case, and the fact the NC is not likely to join hands with its rival PDP, the NC would naturally reach out to the Congress, which it has also partnered in the past.
The Congress could have also joined hands with the PDP, its partner between 2002-08, and with independents. The two parties had parted company in July after the fracas over the Amarnath controversy, leading to Governor’s rule in the state. At one point during the counting, the NC and PDP were running neck and neck, leading in 23 constituencies each.
The Congress has been sharply divided on who it prefers as a partner — NC or PDP.
Former Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad is an avowed supporter of Farooq Abdullah and their proximity has been no secret. On the other hand, Pranab Mukherjee, Saifuddin Soz, M L Fotedar and others had made favourable noises about the PDP in recent days.
The objective situation that has evolved after the polls points to a NC-Congress tieup.
While the PDP has gained ground in the Valley, which is impressive — at one stage it thought it might be wiped out — the Congress will have to take both a state as well as a national view when it considers an alliance partner, particularly with national elections around the corner.
The PDP’s advocacy of “self rule” with ideas such as a dual currency, and its call for demilitarisation have been more controversial outside the Valley, whereas they have endeared it to the people in the Kashmir region. The NC on the other hand has espoused the more acceptable idea of “autonomy,” even though both parties have been talking about a solution without changing the boundaries.
It was during Mufti Mohammed Sayeed’s tenure that the had state moved from “hot pursuit” to “healing touch”, when CBMs were put in place and travel routes opened between the J & K and PoK.
But a Congress alliance with the PDP at this juncture, could give the BJP a handle to attack the Congress in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, more so when PDP is not the single largest party.
The unconfirmed reports that the PDP was in touch with the separatist and pro-Pak leader and Hurriyat hawk Syed Ali Shah Geelani during the campaign and that the Jamaat- e-Islami cadre came out to vote for the PDP in South Kashmir in the last two phases of polls would also make the PDP that much more of a suspect in the eyes of some in the country. As it is, people are angered over the terror attack on Mumbai.
The ideal situation for the Congress would be if Omar Abdullah were to take over as Chief Minister instead of father Dr Farooq Abdullah who was projected by the party as the NC’s CM candidate, but has proved to be an unpredictable entity in the past. Omar is an Abdullah, a young and fresh face, without the baggage of the past. On the question of CM, Dr Farooq Abdullah said even as counting was in progress, that the question would be decided by the NC high command, but he also murmured as an aside that he was more interested in (being in) Parliament, whatever that may mean.
Election 2008 in Kashmir has highlighted several trends and underscored a few messages.
The Amarnath controversy and its aftermath had sharply polarised the state along regional and religious lines and the poll outcome has reflected that divide. The mainline parties, the Congress and the BJP, closer to heartland India, have emerged as contenders for power in the Hindu dominant Jammu region, the BJP making inroads into the Congress support base.
The Muslim dominated Valley which had reacted differently on the other hand has plumped for the regional parties, the NC and the PDP. And yet, as things have turned out, both regions with their contending interests are likely to be represented in government — whether it is NC-Congress Government or a PDP-Congress one, forcing the coalition to move forward in the interest of the whole state. That is the beauty of our democracy. Flawed and often frustrating, it breeds divisions but given the country’s plurality, it also compels an inclusive approach. One of the first tasks of the new government would be to bridge the divide between Jammu and the Valley.
Mehbooba Mufti aroused the sympathy of women voters and went in for a door-to - door campaign, but the lesson for the PDP is that it has to become a pan-Kashmir party.
It is for this reason that it lost out to the NC, which had staying power because of its presence in all three regions of the state.
The five-way division of the vote between the NC, PDP, INC, BJP and “Others”—it makes for more of a fractured verdict than last time — showed that people may have voted not so much in favour of a particular party as for the candidate they felt would cater to their daily needs of school, employment, power and water. To that extent, the Kashmir verdict was a vote for the vote.
The 61 per cent voter turnout in this election, with people defying the separatists’ boycott call, and inclement weather, demonstrated a faith in the credibility of the electoral process — and that is the real story of the Kashmir polls.
People felt it was worth their while to go out and vote and they believed that what they punched into the EVM would actually determine the victor.
It would however be a mistake to misread the verdict and conclude that things are going to be hunky dory now. The polls have provided another window of opportunity to Delhi to reopen the process of dialogue with the mainstream parties as well as with the separatists and do it with determination and with sincerety. This is a chance which must not be frittered away
neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com
About the author:
Neerja Chowdhury is a political commentator and a columnist with The New Indian Express
