If Congress leaders are to be believed, Begum Akbar Jahan, wife of Sheikh Abdullah and the grandmother of Omar Abdullah, had once remarked, words to the effect, “Farooq is fine, but it is Omar you must watch out for.” It is Omar, the people of Jammu and Kashmir, and the country, will be watching on — and after — January 5, as the 38-year-old scion of the Abdullah family takes the chief minister’s oath, heralding a generational change taking place peacefully and democratically in the country’s most troubled state.
The irony of it is that had the National Conference got even a few more seats, Omar Abdullah would not have made it as CM.
Though there was an understanding between father and son, that Farooq Abdullah would be CM if the party was close to the majority mark but Omar would take over if the NC was to head a coalition government, this almost came unstuck for a few suspenseful hours on December 28. But wiser counsel prevailed after an all night family conclave.
One explanation being offered for Farooq Abdullah’s flip-flop is that senior NC leaders began to question why one of them should not be CM, if it was not to be Farooq. One of Omar’s challenges will be how he handles the old guard in his own party, who viewed him as an outsider six years ago and continue to have reservations about him as CM.
A generational change may be taking place in the state — PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti is also likely to head her party in the state assembly — but this is not necessarily true in the NC, though there are several younger people elected on the NC ticket.
Omar Abdullah is J&K’s best bet today because he represents change that people desire and he comes without the baggage of the past. The Farooq-Congress alliance had a bad odour because of what had happened in 1987, when the polls were manipulated to keep the MUF out of power. That was the beginning of the downslide with the anti- Delhi sentiment turning very quickly into an anti-India rhetoric, and many of the erstwhile MUF elements coming to form the core of the separatist opinion.
Omar Abdullah takes over when expectations are riding high. Even sceptics in the Valley have praised the 2008 J&K poll as the “fairest possible election held anywhere in the world”. Those who had boycotted elections in the past have admitted they were held without any kind of coercion, either from the army or the militants’ gun. Omar will be under pressure to deliver, and deliver quickly. He has promised to give a corruption free government and made a good start by insisting that the Congress keep the “tainted” out of government.
The J&K assembly is also the most representative ever to be elected, and that too will keep the new CM on his toes. He will have to deal with the unprecedented divide between the Valley and Jammu and between Hindus and Muslims created by the Amarnath controversy, of the kind not witnessed by his father or grandfather. Though the state can look forward to a vigorous opposition, the young Abdullah will have to contend with parties pulling in opposite direction, sharpening the contradictions that already exist. The BJP, representing the interest of Jammu and a heartland perspective, has already threatened to take to the streets if Jammu’s demands are not met. The 21-member PDP, with its support base in the Valley, is planning to press ahead with its controversial agenda for “demilitarisation”, “self rule”.
As in 2002, so also now, Sonia Gandhi has played a supportive role in government formation.
She has not insisted on a rotational CMship for the Congress. She is also inclined to keep former CM Ghulam Nabi Azad in the state, as CLP leader, so as to help. This means that Saifuddin Soz may be re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha. It is also possible that the Congress may encourage Dr Karan Singh to contest for the Lok Sabha from Jammu and help consolidate the party’s position there.
Though Azad has had a happier relationship with the NC than he did with the PDP, Omar Abdullah will be called to do a tightrope walk for a different reason. The Congress and NC are already thinking of contesting the coming Lok Sabha elections together and if the arithmetic of the assembly polls is any indication, they could win all the six Lok Sabha seats, if they get their act together.
The Congress will want to guard its “nationalistic” credentials, given the BJP’s pitch on terror, and may put pressure on Omar to put the NC’s “autonomy” plank on the backburner, at least for the time being.
But he will have to reckon with the PDP, which will try and expose him by raising the pitch on issues that have a response in the Valley, but could be problematic in Jammu. The party gained five seats and seven per cent of the vote share this time at the expense of NC. There are indications that both Mufti Mohammed Sayed and Mehbooba Mufti may stay on in state politics, and they are expected to dissociate themselves from the UPA.
If, say, the UPA government goes ahead and hangs Afzal Guru, who belongs to Kashmir, the PDP can be expected to make it into an issue. In the evolving geo-political situation in the neighbourhood, and given the setback to the separatists, the PDP, with its “soft separatist” agenda, will try and occupy the space held by the separatists.
Above all, Omar Abdullah will be watched for how he reaches out to a new generation of youth in J&K, and gives shape to their dreams. It was the youth who had led the upsurge in August-September 2008 with cries of azadi and the separatists rode the crest of that emotional outburst. Though the pro-Pak Syed Ali Shah Geelani had used it to bounce back centrestage, many in the separatist camp were worried about the possibility of another 20-year cycle of militancy.
It goes without saying that the verdict offers another window of opportunity to Srinagar and Delhi. Today, the people of J&K are tasting real democracy — and participatory politics — and it could have a spin-off effect, opening doors for new solutions.
One of the reasons why the Congress was keen to have the younger Abdullah as chief minister was his image. His two minute speech in the Lok Sabha during the July 2008 trust vote in defence of secularism —“I am a Muslim and I am an Indian and I seen no distinction between the two” — had given him a national profile. In the last six years, Omar, who lost from the family fiefdom of Ganderbal in 2002 when sent to the state to revive the party fortunes, has demonstrated staying power, sobriety and a balanced approach.
Governments come and go, but Omar Abdullah is taking over at a historic moment in the life of J&K. He is elected to rule the state through a mandate that has a legitimacy, while enjoying a national acceptance, which makes for exciting possibilities.
