Pakistan is placed at the crossroads, perhaps is an understatement. Lately more and more, well meaning Pakistani analysts, and not the usual pessimist ones, in different ways have been posing the same question: Is Pakistan’s demise inevitable? On Friday, January 21, Pakistan’s two leading Dallies ‘The News’ and ‘Daily Times’ carried two identical articles almost having the same headings, ‘Too late to head for shore?’ written by Roedad Khan, a retired senior bureaucrat, and ‘To save a sinking ship’ by Zafar Hilaly, a former diplomat turned foreign policy expert. Roedad Khan believes that Pakistan looks like an ‘exhausted, ossified and ideologically bankrupt’, country ‘surviving merely to perpetuate its corrupt rulers’. Obviously writer is ‘enraged’ to see his country ‘going to hell with such cruelty and waste’. Like many Pakistani thinkers Khan also blames Pakistan’s ‘corrupt’ and inefficient ruling elite responsible for the slide. Pakistan is in dire straits, it’s natural for its citizens to find themselves in a great despair. However, Pakistan has never been a stable nation, political stability and Pakistan sounds to be an oxymoron.
As a matter of fact, Pakistan hardly ever has experienced political stability. Within 25 years of its coming into existence, in 1971 it lost more than half of its territory in Bangladesh’s freedom war. A badly governed country ever since its inception, it has experienced a perpetual tug of war between military dictators and civilian rulers. Both of them have ruled Pakistan for almost an equal period of time; incidentally both blame each other for the current mess. All the four military dictators overthrew the democratically elected governments and imposed military dictatorship on the pretext of saving the country from becoming a failed state. Ironically, all the dictators were forced to leave left Pakistan in a worse shape.
After the debacle of Kargil war, General Pervez Musharraf forced his way and ousted Nawaz Sharief from power. Nawaz Sharief himself a product of Zia dictatorship, instead of waging a struggle against the military rule, succumbed to the hardships of prison barely in six months. On the intervention of the then Saudi monarch, Nawaz along with his family found refuge in Saudi Arabia. Only Bhuttos have waged a valiant struggle against the military dictators, but they have also paid a very heavy price. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was sent to gallows by Zia-ul-Haq, his two sons Shahnawaz and Murtaza were killed in mysterious conditions. The more famous Benazir was assassinated in broad day light, which hastened the end of Musharraf’s rule.
Pakistan since September 2001 has limped from one crisis to another without really recovering from the turmoil; each crisis has pushed it further towards the end of precipice. For the last three years, Zardari’s People’s Party is ruling Pakistan. Going by the performance of Zardari regime it will be better to define it as misrule. All the civilian governments have proved to be inept and corrupt, they have virtually paved the way for the military dictators.
The present government has surpassed all the previous records of bad governance, yet the army seems to be uninterested to grab power this time around. Zafar Hilaly in his article has made a very profound observation: “Ordinarily, a government with the record of this one would have been sent packing. However, today, no one seems to want the job. It is not that they cannot do better, it is simply that they feel that the illness is terminal and they do not want to be around for the last rites.”
Pakistan may not be a failed state yet, but certainly it is a dysfunctional country. It is battered with multiple problems, each of colossal magnitude. Besieged with the menace of terrorism, acute energy crisis and failing economy Pakistan was barely surviving; last year’s unprecedented floods inundated two-thirds of Pakistan. According to Red Cross, four million people even after six months are struggling without any shelter. Due to acute energy shortage and rising fuel prices in international markets, the industry is on the verge of closing down. The country’s budgetary deficit has surpassed 13 hundred billion rupees; if the fiscal situation does not improve soon the deficit can reach up to 7.5 to 8 per cent of the GDP. To keep its economy going Pakistan prints rupees two billion worth of currency notes every day. Some of the Pakistan’s economists have already started demanding an announcement of economic emergency. While the economy is getting bad to worse, the target killings have strangulated the commercial capital Karachi. So far in 20 days of January, 60 people have perished in violence, which is described in Pakistani media circles as a power struggle between PPP, Altaf Hussein’s MQM and Pukhtoon dominated ANP to control the resource-rich Karachi.
The majority in Pakistan holds the ongoing war on terror responsible for the morass Pakistan is badly caught in. For namesake Pakistan and the United States are allies; in reality an unbridgeable chasm exists between the two. It is not mere difference of perceptions; fundamentally their strategic interests vary. America firmly regards Pakistan to be the epicentre of the terrorism. Conversely, the Pakistani strategic community holds American policies, and particularly US military intervention in Afghanistan, responsible for the rise of terrorism in the region. While US wants Pakistan to launch decisive military operations against the Taliban, Pakistan thinkers believe that it will trigger a civil war inside Pakistan: “As long as the Taliban have the support of some of their fellow Pashtuns in Pakistan, they will have the critical support they require to reverse their losses. It is not a question of the Pakistan government two-timing the Americans... It is inherent in the situation and as natural and permanent as is the topography of the area. It is something that any Pakistani regime can only challenge at the risk of its own survival and that of the country”.
It seems American patience has finally sapped. In frustration America has increased the drone attacks. In comparison to 2009’s 53 drone attacks, the US has carried 124 attacks in Pakistan’s tribal areas, killing more than 1,100 people in 2010. Pakistan is also wary of US policy in Afghanistan. During US Vice President Joseph Biden’s recent visit to Kabul and Islamabad, Pakistan foreign office issued a terse statement: Pakistan will not allow a “great game” in Afghanistan. Apparently this was also conveyed to the US Vice President. Pakistan suspects that US is trying to strengthen India’s position in Kabul in anticipation of its withdrawal. Pakistan will never allow its arch enemy India to play a leading rule in its close proximity and breathe fire down its neck. And this is the source of real tensions in the region. Is the endgame nearing or a new great game is about to begin?
--- firdoussyed@yahoo.com
About the author:
Firdous Syed, formerly a separatist, is an analyst based in Kashmir
