Challenges ahead after the AAP tsunami in Punjab

The verdict shows the massive popular anger against the Congress and Akali Dal-BJP combine. But the scale of the huge victory also shows that it is a positive vote.
Image used for representational purpose only. (File Photo)
Image used for representational purpose only. (File Photo)

The verdict in the Assembly election in Punjab has been unprecedented. The state has never witnessed a landslide like this in favour of any party both in terms of vote share and seats, even when there was one-party dominance in the Nehruvian era.

Contrary to the expectations about a fractured verdict in a multi-cornered contest, the verdict has been unanimous in favour of the AAP going by the number of seats it won. Though the AAP received 42.1% of the vote, the first-past-the-post electoral system has resulted in the party cornering a disproportionate 92 out of 117 seats in the state Assembly.

Only the incumbent Congress could poll a somewhat respectable 22.98% of the votes while winning 18 seats, down from the 77 it had won in the last election. The electoral decline of the 100-year-old Akali Dal continued, with the party managing to win merely three seats as against 15 the last time, while garnering 18.38% of the votes against 24% in 2017.

The alliances the Akali Dal and the BJP entered into separately did not help them. The BSP contesting with Akali Dal could poll merely 1.77% votes, almost the same as in 2017 but it could win one seat; the last time it won was way back in the 1997 election.

As for the BJP, due to the massive farmers’ protest against the agriculture laws and also its inability to spread its social base while remaining in alliance with the Akali Dal from 1997 to 2020, it was never in the game. So the party winning two seats with 6.6% of votes can be considered normal. The party, electorally dominant at the national level, shall look forward to increase its support base, especially in 39 constituencies including 20 urban ones where the Hindu community forms the majority.

The AAP’s exceptional performance can also be understood by looking back at the verdict in the last five Assembly elections in favour of the two parties that have held power in the state since 1997, the Akali Dal-BJP combine and Congress, and their vote shares. In another departure from earlier polls in terms of the electoral trend, the AAP’s margins of victory have been huge. Earlier, the state used to see very close contests. In the last Assembly election, there were at least 34 seats where the margin between the winner and the loser was less than 2%.

However, winning by a landslide does not mean a smooth ride for the nascent party, with mostly inexperienced leaders pitted against past masters of state politics. Agreed, the verdict has essentially been reflective of the massive popular anger against the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP combine, which have been blamed for the sorry state of affairs both in social, economic and administrative terms. However, the scale of the win across the three regions and also in most of the 34 reserved Assembly constituencies also shows it is a positive vote.

Therefore, the win places a huge responsibility on the AAP leadership, which has to redeem its pledge to bring an end to drugs and also finish the illegal sand mining and transport business. It also needs to bring back the state economy on the rails, as the farming sector remains deep in a crisis and industries have been leaving rather than coming to the state. Governance is a big issue in Punjab as corruption has almost become institutionalised.

Another issue that the AAP has to address is the need to widen the social basis of political power by empowering the Dalits who constitute one-third of the state’s population. It has to be done not at the cost of counter-mobilisation of the dominant Jat Sikh community, who are land owning and equally strong numerically. Given its troubled past, the two-community borderland state needs to maintain communal peace. The last Assembly election had raised deep concern in this regard among the minority Hindu community against the AAP as the party had banked heavily upon the support of the Sikh diaspora, reportedly including some radical elements.

Further, the challenge would be to fulfil all the tall promises the party has made, like huge subsidies to the poor and also bringing about reforms in the health and education sectors. The party in the past also had raised the hopes of the masses looking for a winning alternative, but became afflicted with factionalism and desertion of its state leadership. One needs to wait this time as the onus would be on the untested state level leadership that now has power. Being the Punjabi Suba with strong regional identity, undue interference by the Delhi-based leadership would prove disastrous for the party, as was seen in the 2017 election too.

Unlike Delhi, Punjab is a full-fledged state and the party’s government would enjoy the constitutional basis of power over the subjects mentioned in the seventh schedule. So it will not be able to complain about the Centre not allowing it to perform. If the AAP succeeds in bringing about a turnaround in the fortunes of what once used to be the leading state of India, the party can very well hope to reap electoral dividends in other regions of the country where it has already got a foothold.

Professor in the Department of Political Science, Panjab University

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