Never before have there been so many armed conflicts across the globe. According to the Global Peace Index 2024, the number of countries with conflicts is the most since the Second World War. They have become more international with 92 countries involved in “conflicts outside their borders”, though not necessarily involved in them militarily.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program reveals that the number of states experiencing armed conflicts was 56 in 2020 and 59 in 2024. In 2023, four armed conflicts were categorised as ‘major’ (with 10,000 or more fatalities in the year): Myanmar civil war, Sudan civil war, Israeli genocide in Palestine and Ukraine-Russia war. The number of ‘high-intensity armed conflicts’ (1,000-9,999 fatalities) increased from 17 in 2022 to 20 in 2023.
In January 2024, 10 countries had extreme levels of conflict: Myanmar, Syria, Palestine, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, Colombia, Haiti, Yemen and Sudan. By July, 10 more countries joined them: Palestine, Myanmar, Syria, Mexico, Nigeria, Colombia, Brazil, Sudan, Cameroon and Pakistan.
The escalation is obvious. In 2019, Ukraine and Gaza were categorised ‘minor conflicts’. By 2023, both wars were drivers of data on hostilities. According to the Geneva Academy’s Rule of Law in Armed Conflict portal, the ongoing conflicts are in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with more than 45 armed conflicts in Israel, Palestine, Syria, Turkey, Yemen, Cyprus, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Morocco and Western Sahara.
Africa had more than 35 non-international armed conflicts including in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. But this data could be deflective: Western intervention has been reported in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria and Somalia.
Europe had six armed conflicts: Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are two armed conflicts in Latin America, in Mexico and Colombia. In all, the US has a hand in 70 percent or more of these conflicts.
The December 2024 Conflict Index reports that in “the past five years, conflict levels have almost doubled” […] This is largely due to three very large conflicts beginning or restarting during that time—Ukraine, Gaza and Myanmar—coupled with continued violence in many other countries with high rates of conflict, including Sudan, Mexico, Yemen and Sahel countries.” Gaza contributed at least 21.5 percent of these casualties; fatalities shot up by 315 percent in the MENA region.
The US is implicated neck deep in Gaza and Ukraine. As for Myanmar, according to the Wilson Centre’s Lucas Myers, “In November 2022, Congress passed the BURMA Act as part of the 2022-23 National Defense Authorisation Act, further enshrining these goals into law. It states that it is US policy to continue to support the people of Burma in their struggle for democracy, human rights, and justice.” Observers expect this region to roil as the US pokes at the troubles it stoked in neighbouring Bangladesh. The binary—the US + supported countries vs opposing states—persists in many parts of the world.
The US often does not classify even its major conflicts, those with at least 1,000 deaths a year, as “war”. The massive Iraq, Afghanistan, Persian Gulf, Korean, Vietnam conflicts have escaped categorisation as wars. Of the 119 conflicts that the US has been tied into, the only ones formally declared were the American-British War of 1812, Mexican War of 1846, Spanish American War of 1898, the First World War (which it entered three years after it began), and the Second World War (entered two years after it began).
The US’s extraterritorial incursions began as soon as the world entered the 19th century, with an action in Tripoli, which presaged its intervention in the region. By 1814, its nematocysts had touched Latin America; by 1827 Europe; by 1832 Southeast Asia; by 1851 the Levant; by 1953 Japan; by 1867 Formosa or Taiwan; by 1918 Russia; by 1940 the Caribbean; by 1941 Greenland, the Netherlands, Iceland, and Germany; by 1982 Eastern Europe; by 1996 Central Africa; and by 1997 West Africa.
The ACLED expects matters to worsen in 2025 in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Myanmar, Mexico, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Sudan, Ukraine, Colombia, Pakistan, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Burundi. The US has already poked and prodded many of them.
In 2022, the US provided arms to Ukraine alone worth $18.1 billion. In 2023, this went up to $80.9 billion. Worldwide, the sales were worth $238 billion, of which the US government directly negotiated $81 billion, a 56 percent increase from 2022. In 2023, the US gave Israel $21.2 billion; in 2024, this had gone up to $42.76 billion.
In this great game, who wins? In 2022, US defence companies pulled in $966.7 billion. In 2024, this went up to $994.6 billion. This year, the sales are expected to cross $1 trillion, perhaps even beating the 2010 peak of $1.2 trillion.
(Views are personal)
Kajal Basu
Veteran journalist
(kajalrbasu@gmail.com)