POTUS Donald Trump has been on a rampage ever since he was sworn into office for the second time some two months back. The flurry of executive decrees signed has thrown the entire world in tumult. He has unleashed an unprecedented trade war against not only adversaries but also against allies, weaponising tariffs, reminding everyone brusquely that in international relations there are no permanent friends or enemies. The language of contemporary diplomacy has fast degenerated into bullying bluster peppered with boasts and bragging. India that had for the past decade cultivated a special strategic relationship with the US has been caught on the wrong foot.
True, Prime Minister Modi has escaped the humiliation in full media glare that some less fortunate heads of state and government have suffered, but his “good friend Donald” has left no room for lingering hopes that any exceptions will be made for India as the MAGA juggernaut rolls on. He has threatened to annex Canada as the 51st state the US, take over Panama Canal and Greenland, ruptured the Atlantic Alliance and left of what was already a weak rule-based World Order into a shambles finally demolishing the international legal fiction about sovereign equality of nations. ‘Might is Right’ is his dictum. Where does that leave India?
It would be dangerously naive to believe that we have strategic autonomy to pursue our national interests in turbulent times. Our diplomacy was based on forging not one but many special strategic partnerships and transforming Nehruvian Non-Alignment into an intermeshing web of multi-plural alignments reclaiming for India the role of the Voice of the Global South. Prime Minister Modi had succeeded brilliantly in projecting the image of resurgent India globally. All this has changed in a blink.
Some analysts suggest that though the emerging challenges are complex and full of hazards there is a silver lining in the dark clouds. India is presented with an opportunity to turn uncertainty into a shining moment full of promise and possibilities like it had done on the eve of Independence by convening the Asian Relations Conference in Delhi. Others are sceptical. They fear that this may end up chasing a mirage and only render the country more vulnerable.
Time for a sobering reality check. The multilateral fora where India had been punching above its weight under NaMo have all but dismantled. What we are witnessing is the re-emergence of Imperialism. Trump has taken the mask off and invited the other ‘Great Powers’—Russia and China—to carve out ‘spheres of influence’ to avoid catastrophic conflicts among themselves. Peace will be imposed in the New World Order from above to facilitate appropriation and exploitation of the natural resources of the weak by the strong.
India, the most populous nation in the world and a country of sub-continental dimensions with a vast pool of skilled work force and technological prowess may not be a Great Power with threatening nuclear arsenal, but can’t be cut down to size. Its cultural footprint extends to Southeast, Central and West Asia and it enjoys considerable goodwill in Africa. It does have a border dispute with China but continues to have very significant trade relations with it. The threat of US sanctions has constrained India to diversify imports of oil and gas as well as military hardware reducing our dependence on Russia but this doesn’t mean that we are willing to accept a subordinate or subsidiary role in international arena.
Size and population aren’t the only things that matter today. Soft power has its uses but can’t be a substitute for economic muscle and self-reliance in critical technology. We are lagging far behind much smaller nations of Asia and Europe in production of advanced computer chips and Artificial Intelligence. The same can be said of cutting edge research in the realm of biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately, insistence to ‘rediscover’ everything in ‘mythological past’—from quantum physics to organ transplants, space travel to nuclear weapons has damaged our credibility greatly. Superstition had started trumping science before Trump reappeared on the scene. While it can’t be denied that colonial masters had undermined traditional knowledge systems and written history to divide and rule us, not everything can be blamed on colonial conspiracies more than 75 years after independence.
If Bharat is to don the mantle of ‘Vishwaguru’ and mediate meaningfully to reduce genocidal strife beyond its borders, it will have to pursue power and prosperity without jeopardising unity and diversity at home. A house divided against itself can’t stand.
The community of interests humanity shares—climate change, protection against pandemics, elimination of terrorist threats, extinguishing racial and religious discrimination—far outweigh the lingering territorial disputes. In the torrential tirade of threatening words this is likely to be lost sight of.
There has been some talk in recent days to let Nehru’s ghost fade and replace his peace keeping whispers to a roar. If this is to turn into reality we must be able to distinguish between messianic zeal and megalomania at home and abroad. Lest dreams turn into nightmares.