The first phase of Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan calling for a ceasefire came into effect on October 10. Since then, Israel has killed more than 200 Palestinian civilians and injured more than 600 among those who were seeking to return home. No doubt there will be more fatalities.
Unfortunately, most governments including India’s have refused to call Israel to account, taking refuge in the fact that there has been a major break from the earlier genocidal campaign of mass-scale military assault in Gaza. If some countries were prepared to call this a genocide, India certainly was not one of them which, if nothing else, is morally revealing of the nature of the present government.
Whether this ceasefire will last depends on Trump’s willingness to restrain and override Benjamin Netanyahu, who says a full-scale assault will be resumed if all the dead hostages are not quickly returned, and that Gaza—that is, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other such groups—must be fully disarmed. But such is the devastation that recovering all the bodies will likely take many more weeks; many may never be recovered.
Furthermore, Hamas and the other armed Palestinian factions, even as they now possess mostly small arms and explosive devices re-tooled from Israel’s unexploded munitions, have made it clear that disarmament can only be on the negotiating agenda when there the Israel Defence Forces completely withdraw from Gaza, as was laid out in earlier negotiated pacts that were signed, but deliberately violated, by Israel.
Even if this fragile peace holds, what of the future? What do the three key actors—Trump, Israel and Hamas—want in the short and long runs?
The Trump-Netanyahu dance
Trump’s peace plan is a collaborative project with Israel and is about rearranging the occupation, not a blueprint for achieving a just peace for Palestine and the region. Tensions exist between Israel and Trump, whose regional ambitions include deepening political and economic relationships with various Arab regimes, thus entertaining possible concessions Israel may not want—even though extending the Abraham Accords, especially to Saudi Arabia, would certainly reassure Israel.
Israel’s first preference is simple—complete the job it started after October 7, 2023, when it deliberately violated negotiated commitments to try and take over the whole of Gaza by ethnic cleansing through massacres and ‘voluntary’ emigration proposals to reduce the Palestinian population to easily-managed levels.
It is important to note that the Trump administration had endorsed the ‘voluntary’ emigration scheme and contacted countries like Sudan and Somalia to see if, for a price, they would be hosts to those expelled. The way would then be cleared for reintroducing Jewish settlers and exploiting the gas and mineral reserves of Gaza.
In time, after the anger of Arab governments at the continued brutality subsides, projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the India-Israel-UAE-US group for economic cooperation could be consolidated. These would bind Israel with key Arab governments to mutual material benefit, thereby further marginalising the concern for Palestine. Trump has withdrawn that voluntary scheme; for Israel to revert to that earlier genocidal course, Trump would have to be persuaded that Hamas is ‘betraying’ his peace plan and must be punished.
There is a second option for Israel. Help Trump in fleshing out the second and third phases of his plan in some workable way. Israel, according to the plan, will retain a strong military presence and a significant buffer zone in Gaza. Vast tracts of land have already been captured since the start of the genocide and most of these gains will be retained.
Don’t forget that Trump from the very beginning has wanted to make profits for himself and other investors from the US, Israel, and elsewhere, even from certain Arab allies, through privatised luxury developments. That still remains a goal, and pursuing it will mean an even greater degree of ghettoisation and concentration of the Palestinians in Gaza.
The plan aims to give supreme power to the Board of Peace, whose membership will be decided by Trump and his solidly pro-Israel advisers while leaving local administration in the hands of obedient Palestinians whose appointment Israel will want to have a veto on. It should be an even more supine and powerless body than that of the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
Incidentally, the US has not categorically rejected the latest Israeli legislation codifying its annexations in the West Bank. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was careful to say, “I think the president has made clear that’s not something we’d be supportive of right now.”
Hamas & Palestine’s future
Matters are clearer for Hamas. It wants to buy the maximum amount of time for a relative peace that will enable aid and reconstruction to rebuild lives and hopes in Gaza. It has long made clear that it will not be part of any transitional governing body, preferring a technical committee whose membership is collectively agreed by the various Palestinian political factions.
Some of these factions will retain a presence in Gaza while the establishment of an armed International Stabilising Force—comprising troops from some Arab and possibly other countries—can be a buffer against the Israeli military, provided the top decision-making Board of Peace does not direct it to suppress or destroy these very factions.
If Israel is not allowed to militarily disrupt the status quo for long enough, then hopefully a reorganisation can take place in the Palestine Liberation Organization through the long-delayed elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council and the presidency of the Palestinian Authority. If the elections are free and fair, the increasingly unpopular Fatah would be replaced by a new leadership that would greatly energise the Palestinian resistance and disturb the nearby Arab countries, because it would very likely stimulate domestic resistances against their authoritarian rule and call for much stronger support and solidarity for Palestine.
Justice for Palestine is only going to be achievable in the much longer run. For now, keeping alive and deepening the spirit of resistance, especially in nonviolent forms, and expanding international solidarity is all-important.
Achin Vanaik | Retired Professor of international relations and global politics, University of Delhi
(Views are personal)
