Nature abhors a vacuum and vacuum abhors a limbo. After the BJP didn’t come anywhere near the 400 mark or get a majority in May 2024, the job of the party president is in limbo.
Though his term expired in June, JP Nadda continues in the catbird seat since the leadership is unable to agree on his replacement. Nadda is not just the interim party boss but is also a Union minister. Now that the TINA factor seems to apply to him, the party will have to quickly resolve the issue to offset the fragility of indecision in public perception.
The world’s biggest party, with myriad lawmakers and chief ministers, is beset with a talent famine. The halcyon days in power have indeed created a phalanx of successful administrators. When the BJP was in the opposition, there were four Vajpayees for one Atal or one Advani to fill their shoes as party chief. As the process for choosing its 12th president is underway, the ink hasn’t dried on many names.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan
A leader who began his social service as an RSS swayamsevak at the age of 13 in 1972, Chouhan, now 65, appears to be the frontrunner. He has age, caste, credibility, experience and acceptability on his side. A three-time chief minister, he is an RSS darling and the least hated by the opposition. Affectionately called Mama in MP, he is a people’s man and easily accessible. His innovative welfare and developmental schemes made the BJP almost invincible in the state.
Hindutva has been the core principle of his governance. Both Vajpayee and Advani had identified him as a future leader and made him CM in 2005, and a member of the parliamentary board. Author of pro-farmer prosperity measures, he enjoys huge rural support. But his independent persona could be his liability.
Devendra Fadnavis
Associated with the Sangh Parivar for 35 years, the 54-year-old Maharashtra neta from Nagpur began political life in the ABVP. After coming to power in 2014, the talent-spotting Modi and Shah made Fadnavis, a Brahmin who was then 44, the second youngest CM of India’s richest state. Senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari and Gopinath Munde were ignored for his sake.
Fadnavis’s distance from any local group and proximity to his supreme bosses has made him a frontrunner. But he hasn’t handled any major national organisational work and has only marginal connect with the national cadres. His loyalty to Modi-Shah may not be enough to rocket him to the top.
Vasundhara Raje
The 71-year-old ex-royal may be down, but is definitely not out of the ring. Overruled by the high command from staking her claim to the chief ministership of Rajasthan for the third time, she is currently one of BJP’s national vice-presidents. Though her plug-in with the larger Sangh ecosystem is attenuated, the RSS leadership is positive, thanks to her late mother Vijaya Raje’s legacy.
Vasundhara has held numerous sensitive and important posts at the Centre, state and party. She is a two-time CM. A terrific orator, she is a nationally known face. If the BJP is looking for its first woman president, Raje’s seniority, experience and gravitas fit the bill. Her disadvantage is that she hasn’t handled any national responsibility that deals directly with the cadres. Moreover, she has kept a distance from the Modi-Shah combo, which has no love lost for her.
Dharmendra Pradhan
Another former student leader with ABVP credentials, the 55-year-old Odiya strongman has been a force in the Sangh’s and BJP’s activities in Odisha and Delhi. He is seen by the top tier as a potential national leader and ideologically trustworthy. A national general secretary, Pradhan has handled state elections in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, UP and Haryana.
After the end of the Atal-Advani era, Modi kept him on in organisational and government positions—among them, as the longest serving petroleum minister since independence. This man of sensitive statecraft has skills better suited for governance, though his opponents allege he lacks national stature and pan-Indian acceptability.
Bhupender Yadav
This 55-year-old Rajasthan-born advocate began his political career as a secretary of the RSS-controlled lawyers’ organisation. He had emerged as a potential national leader during the Atal-Advani era. He was chosen by Nitin Gadkari as BJP national secretary in 2010. Since then, the non-controversial Yadav has been trusted by the top and given important party positions. He became a vital member of Shah’s team after the latter became party president in 2014.
As general secretary, he managed crucial state elections in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. He also played an active role in toppling the Uddhav Thackeray government. The importance of this low-profile backroom operator is evident as the Union minister of environment, forest and climate change, which is a super-sensitive ministry for Modi’s agenda of Viksit Bharat. But a section of the RSS feels he is too junior to be party boss and handle the states where the BJP is in power.
Sunil Bansal
A full-time RSS pracharak on deputation to the BJP as general secretary, the 55-year-old Bansal’s ABVP lineage and RSS experience had made him a master team leader whose philosophy is the ideology of nationhood. He was drafted by the RSS to lead the Youth Against Corruption campaign from 2010 to 2014.
When Shah took over the BJP’s election campaign in 2014, he made Bansal the UP in-charge, which enabled its massive Lok Sabha triumph and later assembly win. Bansal’s mandate this time was handling Odisha, where the BJP came to power for the first time. However, a section of the leadership thinks Bansal needs more exposure to national politics and a strong alignment with the BJP’s state-level architecture.
The problem with crystal-gazing is what you see isn’t always what you get. Modi and the RSS have veto power, which is unprecedented in any state-and-church scenario. The old BJP had a battalion of national and regional satraps suited for the president’s post. But they were veterans of clamorous battlefields, where they fought the Congress and opposition parties for over six decades. There were veteran leaders like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, Pramod Mahajan, Kalyan Singh, Gopinath Munde, Ananth Kumar and Sushma Swaraj; B S Yeddyurappa is still around.
Modi is known to get ministers to resign and take up party jobs. It is likely that Rajnath Singh, Gadkari or Chouhan, or a tested and trusted lesser-known swayamsewak may replace Nadda.
Of the 44 years of the BJP's existence, Vajpayee and Advani led for 15 years. Shah created cohesiveness and a national footprint. Nadda’s thinko that the BJP can survive without the RSS cost it dearly.
Perhaps, the appointment of the next president next January will reflect whether he was right, or the RSS is still the mothership with a veto that rides the Hindutva wave created by Modi and his BJP.