It wasn’t too long back that Bangladesh was portrayed as a grand success story. At the 50th anniversary of nationhood, pundits celebrated the rise of millions out of poverty in a nation challenged by history, geography and circumstance. Its per capita income hovered above that of India, fuelling antsy commentary.
This week, Bangladesh surfaced in headlines for all the wrong reasons—corruption, quota politics, inflation, unemployment and inequality. The learning curve in democracy shows the limitations of an authoritarian occupation of narrative. Curbing dissent and neutering the opposition is effectively lighting a fuse for implosion. Everything that could go wrong went wrong in a democracy gone astray. In a little over 45 days, the headlines from Dhaka—of agitation, over 400 deaths and regime change, and images of protestors walking away with Sheikh Hasina’s Dior bags—have upended the brand equity of Bangladesh.
Cut to Durham in the UK, over 7,900 km across time zones west of Dhaka. Durham witnessed cars used to devastate businesses. Twenty other UK cities also saw violent protests and hate crimes, triggering the biggest law and order crisis since 2011. Unlike Bangladesh, the UK, tagged an advanced economy, has a robust font of competitive politics. Barely six weeks after the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer won a historic majority, the nation is facing the spectre of a civil war.
A curious aspect of the chaos is the face-off between Elon Musk, who tweeted that a civil war was inevitable, and the UK prime minister warning those directly or remotely involved “you’re culpable”. Fuelling the incendiary anger are social media posts by ex-convicts and populists. The protests are brewing on a fertile ground of the belief of being neglected. Those seeking power are persuasive in presenting 'AN' opinion, as 'THE' opinion and research shows whether in war or social strife algorithms amplify polarisation and disinformation.
Anger is parading out on the streets. Tragically, those powerless to change their circumstance are being pitted by political entities to wage war on equally powerless people. The first step to resolution is acceptance of mistakes. Studies show that Brexit, which was sold as the cure for lost opportunities, made it worse following the loss of trade, investment and growth. Yet tragically, nobody wants to call out Brexit.
Beyond national politics, there is a global context fuelling protests. On the face of it, the UK and Bangladesh are two very different cultures, economies and democracies. In the 1970s, Arthur Okun, a professor at Yale and an adviser to Lyndon Johnson, came up with the concept of the ‘Misery Index’, which is arrived at by adding the annual unemployment rate and the annual inflation rate. The rise of misery is the common factor fuelling agitation and chaos.
Misery has a new moniker in modern economies—the cost of living crisis. Aggravation has catalysed political mobilisation—Carnegie Endowment’s Global Protest Tracker reveals that since 2017, economic issues have triggered protests in 258 countries. In Bangladesh, misery morphed into anger at the persistence of entitlements for some at the cost of many. In the UK, misery has morphed into violent hate at those perceived to be robbing the “locals” of opportunities.
Erosion of opportunity worsens inequality as the income gap is widened. Inequality is a complex issue and a force multiplier of angst. The phenomenon has spawned literature and indices inspired by literature such as the Great Gatsby Curve conceptualised by Alan Krueger, which illustrates the connection between concentration of wealth and barriers to opportunity and hurdles to upward mobility.
It is well established that the longer one performs below potential, the lower one drags long-term potential. Indeed, mentors of athletes and CXOs deploy the concept of a ‘compound effect’ elaborated by Darren Hardy and others to agitate protégées into achieving their potential. Long-term potential already impacted by uneven globalisation is challenged by global disruptions in business models, which threaten the resilience of nations and the prosperity of individuals.
The disruptive potential of generative AI is already in play—the IMF estimates that states over 40 percent of global employment is exposed to the impact of artificial intelligence. Digitalisation has shrunk human interface, especially in banking and retail. The next frontier is visible through the prism of the Ozempic economy—earlier this month, Weight Watchers of the weight loss programmes fame shed staff, Wendy’s cut sales guidance as diner traffic declined, and retailers are rejigging procurement.
The global economy is migrating from a demand-constrained world to a supply-constrained one as companies, consumers and countries shift from the fossil fuel economy to a net zero regime. (Just coal mines employ 4.7 million people, whereas the production of EVs needs 40 percent less labour.) There is disruption in the media world too—the decline of linear television is visible in the write-offs of billions by mega corps such as Warner and Paramount, and the fall in Disney’s earnings from the “happiest place on earth”.
Context is critical for comprehension and policy design. The triad of disruptions—climate, technology and demography—fuel uncertainty. The rise in protectionism and reshoring of investments will aggravate faultlines and misery. Resilience calls for a rejig of policies, from enabling skills to raising resources for income support. The question is how ready the countries are to mitigate pain, Globally, it would seem the political class is campaigning in one constituency and contesting in another.
Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12-Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)