It was the run-up to the Maharashtra assembly polls in 2014. Devendra Fadnavis, the face of the BJP’s campaign, was at a conference hosted by a news channel. The large screen behind him played the now-famous video clip where Fadnavis promised when the BJP came to power “Ajit dada chakki peesing, peesing and peesing”.
It was a smart blend of Bollywood and politics. I asked Fadnavis if he had seen Sholay, in which Veeru and Basanti were eventually betrothed. To the ‘what if’ question, Fadnavis laughed and said it would be better to be a bachelor. The video has since led a charmed viral existence. It has also come to symbolise the past that haunts the future of the BJP in Maharashtra.
If a week is a long time in politics, 10 years would qualify for an era. The BJP’s journey of the past decade illustrates the perils of short-termism in politics. In a series of misadventures, the party surrendered the anti-corruption plank, engendered mistrust among allies, eroded credibility with break-and-make transitions, and stands accused of ragtag opportunistic politics.
Stalled leader: The BJP’s successful campaign in 2014 was built around personality and a promise. The slogan was, “Delhi mein Narendra, Mumbai mein Devendra.” Fadnavis was convivial, yet aggressive and radical in his approach - following a fire at the Mantralaya in 2012, he petitioned the police to file an FIR against the sitting chief minister. By 2019, Fadnavis had carved a stature, triggering envy. The image seems to have lost its way. In 2024, Fadnavis appears to be at odds and often at war within the party, seen as ‘one man against Rome’.
Broken promise: Central to the BJP’s success was a promise to rid the state of corruption—underlined by a chargesheet accusing the Congress-NCP alliance of scams worth Rs 11 lakh crore. The BJP along with the Shiv Sena romped home in October 2014, winning 122 and 63 seats in the house of 288. A few weeks later, the Maharashtra government gave the nod to the state Anti-Corruption Bureau for a probe against Ajit Pawar and Sunil Tatkare of the NCP. A decade later, Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are deputy chief ministers and co-campaigners for the 2024 elections.
Cratered alliance: Relationships define success in politics and language matters. For a quarter century, the BJP and Shiv Sena were siblings in the saffron alliance. The alliance chugged along despite what Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray dubbed as ‘domestic squabbles’. The alliance collapsed after the 2019 elections following a battle of insinuations over chief ministership. Government formation was stalled. The details are fuzzy depending on who is telling the story, but what is clear is that by the end of October, Uddhav Thackeray walked out and the alliance was in tatters.
Shotgun wedding: The BJP used to call itself the party with a difference. With 105 MLAs, it could have out-waited the opposition. But they chose not to. In a move akin to a hostile corporate takeover, on November 23, 2019, the BJP roped in Ajit Pawar to form the government. NCP chief Sharad Pawar quickly dubbed the nephew’s migration illegal and formed the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), NCP and Congress, with Uddhav as the CM-designate. The BJP’s shotgun wedding didn’t last beyond three days - Ajit Pawar and his group eventually joined the MVA government.
Split and rule: In 2022, the MVA appeared close to collapse under the weight of its contradictions when the BJP brought it down, partnering with the breakaway SS group led by Eknath Shinde. The opposition said the split was enabled by the misuse of central agencies; the BJP claimed innocence and the Shinde group said it was not a split. Fadnavis faced the ignominy of being directed to join as deputy chief minister.
In July 2023, the BJP revisited an old theme and inducted Ajit Pawar and an NCP faction into the government - arguably to bridge the gaps in electoral footprint among social coalitions and in rural Maharashtra. It didn’t pay off in June 2024, but sullied the party’s playbook.
Development detained: As politics unravelled, the state’s economy took a beating. Maharashtra’s debt has spiralled to Rs 7.11 lakh crore (17.6 percent of the gross state domestic product); interest payments at Rs 48,578 crore account for 10 percent of revenues. Unlike the past, the state is growing slower at 7.6 percent compared to India’s GDP growth of 8.2 per cent. BJP’s 2014 success was catalysed by the support of angry farmers. In 2024, farmers are raging against the BJP.
The Maratha anger is about a loss of social standing, but it also symbolises unviability of farming - the net sown area is sliding and the gross cropped area is stagnant. The state is lagging in investments and its per capita income, at Rs 2.52 lakh, trails seven states.
This month, the Election Commission announced the dates for elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. However, public attention is focused on the elections in Maharashtra as a marker of political dominance. This is a make-or-mar poll for the BJP - yes, the Namo Shetkari Mahasanman Nidhi and the Ladki Bahin cash transfer scheme have created a buzz, but the task is uphill. A parade of hubris and desperation, a series of missteps and the choice of tactical over strategic have stranded the party in a muddle that it must dig itself out of.
Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)