An election is a portmanteau of eclectic experiments. Once opened, it turns into a Pandora’s box of opportunistic opportunities. Bihar elections promise to redefine the conviction, consistency and cohesiveness of political participants. Since there aren’t permanent friends or foes in politics, the Assembly polls will, as usual, ozonize political rainbows of various sizes and hues. Adversaries of yester years will become admirers as villains are projected as visionaries. During 2015, the fight was between mighty mavericks. A disruptionist politician like Narendra Modi had just become the prime minister. He was perceived as unputdownable. Six months later, he was pitched against the powerful duo of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, both former chief ministers. They were champions of social justice, and both uncrowned caste-and-community royalty. United, they fought and stalled the Modi juggernaut. Though they were seeking a mandate for development, the BJP and the Mahaghathbandhan (JDU, RJD and Congress) massively played the caste and communal card. Modi magic failed to mesmerize the Bihar electorate, which turned out to be ferociously vocal for local.
But 2020 is both politically and socially different than 2015. Lalu is in jail and his 31-year-old son Tejashwi Yadav is fighting a lonely battle. He lacks the rustic charisma of his father and ability to forge alliances. The chances of a credible alternative to the NDA are quite dim. The Congress party is on ventilator. The divided opposition is expecting a divine windfall. On the other hand, Modi wouldn’t be indulging in political bombing to eject a government. He will be drumming up support for Nitish who joined the NDA in 2017 after dumping Lalu in a midnight coup. Unlike 2015, when both canted derisively against each other, this time Modi and Nitish would be promoting each other.
Expectedly, Modi is already on his most liberal gimmicks spree. Last week, he launched many developmental projects just few weeks before the formal dates are to be announced. From petroleum projects worth `9,000 crore to new airports and AIIMS, the Centre and the state government rolled out a mammoth blueprint for Bihar, which is abysmally below the national average on numerous economic and social parameters. Since Modi has to neutralise a 15 year-old anti-incumbency environment, he has chosen to convert the election into a referendum on Nitish‘s performance as Vikas Purush. During one a virtual speech, the PM made it point to praise the CM. Modi said, “We must ensure sushasan (good governance) in Bihar. The good work done in the last 15 years must continue. In the last 15 years, Bihar has shown that development happens with the right government, decisions, and policies, and also reaches everyone. We are working for the growth of all sectors in Bihar.”
It is expected that all parties will offer seductive political pronouncements during election time. They would promise a Golden Bihar brimming with confidence and dynamic development. Bihar did register a record growth of over 10 per cent for a couple of years. Yet, it is still at the bottom of the Indian growth pyramid when it comes to per capita state domestic product. As against the national average of USD 2,100, Bihar has just USD 650. In many other social parameters such as public health care, education, literacy and gender equality, it lags far behind most states. It’s perplexing that Bihar, which had a reputation for defections and unstable governments before 1990, has failed to catch up with the sanguine national trend despite having relatively stable governments in the past three decades.
Perhaps no other state in India has been lucky to have a consistently stable government for three continuous decades as Bihar. During 1960-1990, a chief minister changed every 18 months on average — 24 chief ministers in 30 years. But for the next three decades beginning 1990 to 2020, the state had just three chief ministers with couple of others functioning as seat warmers for few weeks or months. From 1990, Bihar was led by Lalu and later his wife Rabri Devi for 15 years. Lalu and his clan were accused of scams and the worst governance.
Finally, Lalu Parivar was dislodged in 2005 by none other than its old ally Nitish who has continued to lord over governance for the past 15 years. The domination of caste politics made the magnetism of national parties redundant. They’ve been unable to install a leader from their outfit as the chief minister. The BJP has reconciled to the idea of retaining only the No 2 position in the state with Sushil Modi as the permanent deputy chief minister. The choice of the candidate continues to be based on his or her class, caste and communal affiliations. While Uttar Pradesh has been able to break the caste barriers, Bihar is inversely consolidating its caste confederacies. Backward castes comprising Yadavs, Kurmis, Koeri and Banias account for over 56 per cent of the population. Muslims are about 17 per cent while the upper castes’ share is less than 20 per cent. The upper castes traditionally dominate both the Congress and the BJP.
From circa Lalu-Nitish ‘Vote One Get One Free’ times, the share of backwards in the Assembly is up from 34 per cent to 47 per cent while upper caste representation is down to 20 per cent from 35 per cent. The 2015 election ensured the record victory of backward and Muslims candidates because of the Lalu-Nitish alliance. In the 243-member state Assembly, Yadavs accounted for 61 MLAs. After SC/ST winners, the Muslims formed the third largest group of 24. The BJP had none, which could win 53 seats of the 157 contested by the party. Its other allies like Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP could score barely two seats. On the other hand, the Mahaghathbandhan swept the polls with over two third of the seats with Lalu’s RJD winning 80 out of 101 it fought. Yet Nitish became the chief minister who in return endorsed the Yadav dynastic politics by accepting Lalu’s younger son Tejashwi as his deputy CM.
Again, a dynast is posing a serious challenge to the throne of Patna. Though the new arithmetic of choices is yet to consolidate into formulae, it’s evident that the Bihar election is once again fated to set the tone for political realignment. It will determine the political future of not only Nitish but also the BJP’s horsepower to vroom the victory of a regional satrap. Or, the outcome would decide the fate and fortunes of yet another Yadav. Should he triumph, it would mark the return of both backward politics and the elimination of the ageing leadership of all the other parties. Ordinarily, it should be a cakewalk for the Modi-Nitish combo since they have the organisational resources and mastery over the art of converting a defeat into victory.
The invocation of Bihari sub-nationalism in the form of ‘Justice for Sushant Singh Rajput’ reflects the uneasiness in the ruling party camp. Justice for the masses is the true casualty in Bihar. The manner in which the SSR episode was played out by the NDA to plague the orphaned Congress reflects that it needs more than Mighty Modi to retain the government. Bihar is destined to be the chaotically confusing cartographer of India’s political map. The commandos of caste and community regiments will cross the election LAC once again to do battle with democratic and inclusive idealism.
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com Follow him on Twitter @PrabhuChawla
The invocation of Bihari sub-nationalism in the form of ‘Justice for Sushant Singh Rajput’ reflects the uneasiness in the ruling party camp. Justice for the masses is the true casualty in Bihar. The manner in which the SSR episode was played out by the NDA to plague the orphaned Congress reflects that it needs more than Mighty Modi